Minnesota United FC
vs
Houston Dynamo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Minnesota United FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo
| Probability | Minnesota United FC | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.8% | 27.3% | 36.9% |
| Market | 45.6% | 26.0% | 28.4% |
| Final | 43.2% | 26.3% | 30.5% |
| Edge | -9.8% | +1.3% | +8.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo match preview
Minnesota United FC faces Houston Dynamo in a match where the model gives Minnesota a 43% chance of winning, while Houston has a 31% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Minnesota, with an 8% likelihood. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is at 54%, and there is a 59% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Minnesota United FC has struggled with five consecutive losses followed by a draw, whereas Houston Dynamo has recorded one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. The expected goals are closely matched, with Minnesota at 1.42 and Houston at 1.44, indicating a competitive encounter. The head-to-head record shows each team with one win in their last two meetings.
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo team news
Minnesota United FC news
- A. Smir — knee injury
- J. Diaz — yellow cards
- J. Pereyra — muscle injury
- P. Stroud — muscle injury
Houston Dynamo news
- A. Resch — lower-body injury
- H. Herrera — suspended
- J. Maurer — concussion
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo attack and defence ratings
Minnesota United FC
Houston Dynamo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
- Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew — match page
- Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake — team news & stats
- New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati — match page
- New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders — team news & stats
- Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers — team news & stats
- Austin v Nashville SC — match page
- Colorado Rapids vs San Jose Earthquakes — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | 43.2% | 2.32 | -9.8% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | 43.2% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Houston Dynamo | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% |
| No | 41.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Minnesota United FC win | 17.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 64.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo stats
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo recent form
| Minnesota United FC |
LLLLLD |
| Houston Dynamo |
LDLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo season so far
Minnesota United FC record
- They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Houston Dynamo record
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-26 | Minnesota United FC | Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-15 | Houston Dynamo | Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.6%, draw 26.0%, away 28.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.12 | 3.70 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.54 | 3.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.07 | 3.60 | 3.46 |
| SBO | 2.05 | 3.14 | 2.91 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
34 snapshots recorded, from .