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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 28

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo

2 – 2 Full time

18′Lyle Foster
48′Kelvin Yeboah
63′Lyle FosterNick Markanich
63′Felipe·De Andrade VieiraFranco Negri
63′Bongokuhle HlongwaneMarcus Caldeira
63′Aziel JacksonMauricio González Carabalí
63′Owen GeneNectarios Triantis
66′Mauricio González Carabalí
75′Jonathan BondBlake Gillingham
78′Marcus Caldeira
82′Wil Trapp
84′Lawrence EnnaliDuane Holmes
84′Diadie SamassekouMatthew Arana
88′Tomás ChancalayCarlos Harvey
88′Cherrion ValeriusKyle Duncan
89′Agustín BouzatDuncan McGuire
90′Duncan McGuire
90′Kelvin YeboahMaurice Malone

Allianz Field, Sao PauloReferee: Marcos De Oliveira

Minnesota United FC 43%
Draw 26%
Houston Dynamo 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 15
6 Shots on target 6
46 Possession % 54
2 Corners 5
16 Fouls 4
0 Offsides 1
4 Saves 4
374 Accurate passes 447

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMinnesota United FCDrawHouston Dynamo
Model35.8%27.3%36.9%
Market45.3%26.2%28.5%
Final42.9%26.5%30.6%
Edge-2.4%+0.3%+2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Minnesota Unit ↓ / Houston Dynamo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 7% 1 7% 13% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo expected goals

Minnesota United FC 1.42
Houston Dynamo 1.44

Total expected goals: 2.85

Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo attack and defence ratings

Minnesota United FC

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Houston Dynamo

Attack 0.74 -26%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo: result vs prediction

Minnesota United FC 2 – 2 Houston Dynamo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Minnesota United FC 42.9% 2.33 -2.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.4% 1.84 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.0% 1.69 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.5% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.1% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Minnesota United FC42.9%
Draw26.5%
Houston Dynamo30.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.4%
Under 2.545.6%
Both teams to scoreYes59.0%
No41.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.4%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)57.1%
Handicap -1Minnesota United FC win17.2%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss64.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
1-28.4%
2-18.3%

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo stats

Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo recent form

newest first
Minnesota United FC LLLLLD
Houston Dynamo LDLWDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Minnesota United FC and Houston Dynamo going into this match

league record before kick-off

Minnesota United FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Houston Dynamo record

  • They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Minnesota United FC wins 1Draws 3Houston Dynamo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-06-26Minnesota United FCHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer3-1
2025-05-15Houston DynamoMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer2-0
2024-07-14Houston DynamoMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-1
2024-04-14Minnesota United FCHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer1-2
2023-07-13Houston DynamoMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer0-3
2023-05-24Houston DynamoMinnesota United FCUS Open Cup4-0
2023-05-18Minnesota United FCHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer1-0
2022-08-27Minnesota United FCHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer2-1
2022-07-24Houston DynamoMinnesota United FCMajor League Soccer1-2
2021-09-26Minnesota United FCHouston DynamoMajor League Soccer2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.3%, draw 26.2%, away 28.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 2.10 3.60 3.40
BetVictor 2.05 3.60 3.30
Betano 2.02 3.75 3.50
Betfair 2.10 3.75 3.20
Dafabet 2.15 3.65 3.35
Marathonbet 2.05 3.54 3.28
Pinnacle 2.10 3.60 3.51
SBO 2.08 3.31 3.06
William Hill 2.05 3.30 3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.08 ▲ +0.08
X 3.60 ▼ -0.02
2 3.30 ▲ +0.05

36 snapshots recorded, from .