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Major League Soccer · Full time ·Matchday 26

Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire

3 – 0 Full time

33′S. Surridge
35′H. Mukhtar
57′J. Elliott
68′R. LodJ. Bamba
68′M. Haile-SelassieP. Dithejane
69′E. SaadS. Mohammed
75′S. OregelA. Mekvabishvili
78′C. Espinoza
79′D. D'AvillaM. Pineda
79′J. DeanJ. Gomez
83′P. YazbekE. Tagseth
83′A. NajarD. Lovitz
87′H. Mukhtar
90′H. MukhtarA. Muyl
90′C. EspinozaJ. Bauer

Geodis Park, NashvilleReferee: L. Hernandez

Nashville SC 54%
Draw 23%
Chicago Fire 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 1
56 Possession % 44
5 Corners 2
12 Fouls 9
4 Offsides 2
0 Saves 3
457 Accurate passes 351

Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNashville SCDrawChicago Fire
Model56.8%22.7%20.5%
Market52.7%23.3%23.9%
Final53.8%23.2%23.1%
Edge+4.1%-0.6%-3.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Nashville SC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.21.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Nashville SC below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Nashville SC ↓ / Chicago Fire → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 10% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Nashville SC and Chicago Fire expected goals

Nashville SC 2.09
Chicago Fire 1.21

Total expected goals: 3.29

Nashville SC and Chicago Fire attack and defence ratings

Nashville SC

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Chicago Fire

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 1.07 +7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire: result vs prediction

Nashville SC 3 – 0 Chicago Fire

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Major League Soccer

Before and after this match

Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nashville SC 53.8% 1.86 +4.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.1% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 62.4% 1.60 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.9% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.3% 2.31 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Nashville SC53.8%
Draw23.2%
Chicago Fire23.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%
Both teams to scoreYes62.4%
No37.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.9%
12 (either side)76.8%
X2 (draw or away)46.2%
Handicap -1Nashville SC win35.0%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss43.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.2%
2-19.8%
2-08.1%

Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire stats

Nashville SC and Chicago Fire recent form

newest first
Nashville SC DLDWWW
Chicago Fire LDDDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Nashville SC and Chicago Fire going into this match

league record before kick-off

Nashville SC record

  • They have won 16 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chicago Fire record

  • They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Nashville SC wins 2Draws 2Chicago Fire wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-05Chicago FireNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-0
2025-06-15Chicago FireNashville SCMajor League Soccer0-2
2025-04-27Nashville SCChicago FireMajor League Soccer7-2
2024-10-20Chicago FireNashville SCMajor League Soccer0-3
2024-09-19Nashville SCChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-0
2023-07-09Chicago FireNashville SCMajor League Soccer1-0
2023-05-07Nashville SCChicago FireMajor League Soccer3-0
2021-09-26Chicago FireNashville SCMajor League Soccer0-0
2021-07-18Nashville SCChicago FireMajor League Soccer5-1
2020-11-01Nashville SCChicago FireMajor League Soccer1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.5%, draw 23.4%, away 24.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
Bet365 1.80 4.10 3.90
BetVictor 1.75 4.00 3.90
Betano 1.85 4.00 4.25
Betfair 1.80 4.00 3.90
Marathonbet 1.77 3.88 3.96
Pinnacle 1.82 4.08 4.04
SBO 1.77 3.47 3.41
William Hill 1.75 3.75 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.77 ▲ +0.04
X 4.00 ▲ +0.05
2 3.90 ▼ -0.20

12 snapshots recorded, from .