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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds

2 – 2 Full time

45′A. Rocha
45′T. Amann
57′V. SouzaP. Barnes
57′T. AmannA. Dikwa
57′R. YdrachI. Osumanu
60′S. Bassett
67′R. Tori
70′M. RomeroD. Mello
70′H. Al ZubaidiG. Diaz
70′A. RogersJ. Levin
75′J. SonoraB. Ndiaye
75′E. GoldthorpY. Tsukanome
79′J. Walti
86′R. Da CostaM. Mlekus
86′C. AhlB. Etou
90′O. Mikoy
90′D. Knutson

Riccardo Silva StadiumReferee: M. Corrigan

Miami FC 26%
Draw 30%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMiami FCDrawPittsburgh Riverhounds
Model21.1%30.8%48.1%
Market27.2%29.2%43.6%
Final25.7%29.6%44.7%
Edge-6.2%+1.7%+4.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Pittsburgh Riverhounds

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.79.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Pittsburgh Riverhounds below the model: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Miami FC ↓ / Pittsburgh Riv → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 15% 11% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 36%
No goals 13%

Miami FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds expected goals

Miami FC 0.79
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.33

Total expected goals: 2.12

Miami FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack and defence ratings

Miami FC

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 1.46 +46%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 0.64 -36%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds: result vs prediction

Miami FC 2 – 2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 44.7% 2.24 +4.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.3% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score No 58.4% 1.71 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 74.3% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.9% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Miami FC25.7%
Draw29.6%
Pittsburgh Riverhounds44.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.7%
Under 2.564.3%
Both teams to scoreYes41.6%
No58.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.3%
12 (either side)70.4%
X2 (draw or away)74.3%
Handicap -1Pittsburgh Riverhounds win23.4%
Push (exactly one goal)24.6%
Loss51.9%
Correct score (top 3)0-114.6%
1-113.9%
0-013.2%

Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds stats

Miami FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds recent form

newest first
Miami FC LLLDLL
Pittsburgh Riverhounds DLWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Miami FC and Pittsburgh Riverhounds going into this match

league record before kick-off

Miami FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 22 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds record

  • They have won 10 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 23 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Miami FC wins 4Draws 5Pittsburgh Riverhounds wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-30Pittsburgh RiverhoundsMiami FCUSL Championship2-0
2025-10-04Miami FCPittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship3-1
2025-07-29Pittsburgh RiverhoundsMiami FCUSL Championship1-1
2024-10-05Miami FCPittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship0-4
2024-05-04Pittsburgh RiverhoundsMiami FCUSL Championship1-0
2023-09-16Miami FCPittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship1-2
2023-03-24Pittsburgh RiverhoundsMiami FCUSL Championship1-1
2022-07-09Pittsburgh RiverhoundsMiami FCUSL Championship4-1
2022-05-28Miami FCPittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship2-2
2021-10-16Miami FCPittsburgh RiverhoundsUSL Championship0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Miami FC vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.3%, draw 29.3%, away 42.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.32 3.15 2.07
Bet365 3.20 3.20 2.10
BetVictor 3.40 3.20 2.10
Betano 2.95 3.00 2.32
Betfair 2.90 3.30 2.25
Dafabet 3.00 3.20 2.36
Marathonbet 3.40 3.04 2.05
Pinnacle 3.57 3.12 2.23
Unibet 2.85 3.10 2.25
William Hill 3.30 3.00 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.36 ▲ +0.28
X 3.13 ▲ +0.03
2 2.10 ▼ -0.12

11 snapshots recorded, from .