USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Rhode Island
vs
Louisville City
1 – 1 Full time
| 18′ | S. Totsch | ||
| 46′ | K. YaoO. Foyo | ||
| 48′ | S. Korzeniowski | ||
| 50′ | A. McFadden | ||
| 51′ | Q. Huerman | ||
| 56′ | B. DayesJ. Morris | ||
| 56′ | S. GleadleE. Perez | ||
| 56′ | K. LambertT. Davila | ||
| 63′ | S. Totsch | ||
| 66′ | K. Smith | ||
| 69′ | A. Shapiro-ThompsonE. Klein | ||
| 69′ | Y. TsukadaA. Rodriguez | ||
| 69′ | D. FaundezR. Schewe | ||
| 81′ | Leo AfonsoD. Atkinson | ||
| 81′ | T. ShowunmiC. Donovan | ||
| 89′ | G. StonemanA. Sanchez | ||
| 90′ | E. Davila | ||
| 90′ | J. Kwizera |
Rhode Island
45%
Draw
27%
Louisville City
28%
Rhode Island vs Louisville City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rhode Island vs Louisville City
| Probability | Rhode Island | Draw | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.3% | 25.4% | 20.3% |
| Market | 41.3% | 27.7% | 31.0% |
| Final | 44.5% | 27.1% | 28.4% |
| Edge | +13.0% | -2.3% | -10.7% |
Why Rhode Island
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rhode Island below the model: +13.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Rhode Island and Louisville City expected goals
Rhode Island
1.78
Louisville City
1.02
Total expected goals: 2.80
Rhode Island and Louisville City attack and defence ratings
Rhode Island
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.79 -21%
Louisville City
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rhode Island vs Louisville City: result vs prediction
Rhode Island 1 – 1 Louisville City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Rhode Island vs Louisville City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 44.5% | 2.25 | +13.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 44.5% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Louisville City | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% |
| No | 45.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rhode Island win | 31.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.7% |
Rhode Island vs Louisville City stats
Rhode Island and Louisville City recent form
| Rhode Island |
LWLWLW |
| Louisville City |
DLWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rhode Island and Louisville City going into this match
Rhode Island record
- They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 20 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City record
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Rhode Island vs Louisville City head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
2Rhode Island wins
1Draws
3Louisville City wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Louisville City | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 4-2 |
| 2025-09-06 | Rhode Island | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-12 | Louisville City | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Louisville City | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 0-3 |
| 2024-06-23 | Louisville City | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 2-5 |
| 2024-05-25 | Rhode Island | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rhode Island vs Louisville City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 27.5%, away 31.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.25 | 2.95 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.28 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 3.25 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Unibet | 2.32 | 3.25 | 2.63 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.20 ▼ -0.12
X
3.27 ▼ -0.02
2
2.92 ▲ +0.15
10 snapshots recorded, from .