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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Sporting JAX vs Lexington

3 – 2 Full time

19′K. Sadlier
60′J. Rossiter
69′M. FryT. Scott
69′Nick FirminoM. Yosef
72′K. SadlierH. Neville
73′M. Epps
80′R. PedderA. Al Qaq
81′M. GodinhoT. Roberts
84′X. Zengue
86′W. AckweiA. Gomez
86′W. KuzainA. Luckhurst
88′E. Jaaskelainen
90′A. Al Qaq
90′J. GreeneP. Seagrist
90′A. Al Qaq

Hodges StadiumReferee: C. Rodriguez

Sporting JAX 22%
Draw 22%
Lexington 56%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Sporting JAX vs Lexington overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting JAX vs Lexington

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySporting JAXDrawLexington
Model20.8%21.5%57.7%
Market22.4%22.5%55.1%
Final22.0%22.2%55.8%
Edge-1.6%-0.9%+2.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Lexington

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.32.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Lexington below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sporting JAX ↓ / Lexington → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 7% 5% 5% 1 9% 9% 7% 7% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 4%

Sporting JAX and Lexington expected goals

Sporting JAX 1.32
Lexington 2.25

Total expected goals: 3.57

Sporting JAX and Lexington attack and defence ratings

Sporting JAX

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.85 +85%

Lexington

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sporting JAX vs Lexington: result vs prediction

Sporting JAX 3 – 2 Lexington

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Sporting JAX vs Lexington markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lexington 55.8% 1.79 +2.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.2% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.4% 1.51 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 78.0% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.3% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sporting JAX22.0%
Draw22.2%
Lexington55.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.2%
Under 2.530.8%
Both teams to scoreYes66.4%
No33.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)44.2%
12 (either side)77.8%
X2 (draw or away)78.0%
Handicap -1Lexington win36.8%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss42.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.4%
1-19.2%
0-27.1%

Sporting JAX vs Lexington stats

Sporting JAX and Lexington recent form

newest first
Sporting JAX LWLLLD
Lexington LLWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sporting JAX and Lexington going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sporting JAX record

  • They have won 2 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Lexington record

  • They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sporting JAX vs Lexington head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Sporting JAX vs Lexington odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.3%, draw 22.8%, away 53.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.03 4.10 1.65
Bet365 4.33 3.80 1.60
BetVictor 4.40 4.00 1.65
Betano 3.40 3.80 1.85
Betfair 3.40 3.80 1.85
Dafabet 3.55 3.95 1.87
Marathonbet 3.98 4.10 1.63
Pinnacle 4.08 4.52 1.70
Unibet 3.55 3.55 1.80
William Hill 3.80 4.00 1.67

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.05 ▲ +0.45
X 4.05 ▲ +0.45
2 1.65 ▼ -0.18

10 snapshots recorded, from .