Venezuela Primera División
·
Full time
·Clausura - 9
Deportivo La Guaira
vs
UCV
0 – 2 Full time
| 19′ | Guillermo Ortíz | ||
| 21′ | Daniel Badillo Sousa | ||
| 40′ | Williams·Velasquez | ||
| 45′ | Carlos Rojas | ||
| 46′ | Edwin De Jesús Peraza Larezmaicol ruiz | ||
| 54′ | Jose Ali MezaAnthony Uribe | ||
| 55′ | Miguel Eduardo Gonzalez Acostasebastian zeballos | ||
| 55′ | Nelson HernandezLuis Angel Casimiro Pena Martinez | ||
| 63′ | Junior AraujoWilliams José Lugo Ladera | ||
| 67′ | Williams José Lugo Ladera | ||
| 70′ | Jose CorreaJuan Luis Perdomo | ||
| 71′ | maicol ruiz | ||
| 84′ | Matias Orihuelamayken gonzalez | ||
| 86′ | Juan Camilo ZapataJuan Diego Alegría Arango | ||
| 87′ | Edwin MosqueraAiderson Salazar | ||
| 90′ | Daniel Badillo Sousasteven pabon |
Deportivo La Guaira
57%
Draw
25%
UCV
18%
Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV
| Probability | Deportivo La Guaira | Draw | UCV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.5% | 19.0% | 12.5% |
| Market | 52.8% | 26.7% | 20.4% |
| Final | 56.8% | 24.8% | 18.4% |
| Edge | +15.6% | -7.7% | -7.9% |
Why Deportivo La Guaira
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo La Guaira below the model: +15.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
65%
No goals
4%
Deportivo La Guaira and UCV expected goals
Deportivo La Guaira
2.40
UCV
0.96
Total expected goals: 3.36
Deportivo La Guaira and UCV attack and defence ratings
Deportivo La Guaira
Attack
1.44 +44%
Defence
1.01 +1%
UCV
Attack
0.89 -11%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV: result vs prediction
Deportivo La Guaira 0 – 2 UCV
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 56.8% | 1.76 | +15.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo La Guaira win | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo La Guaira | 56.8% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| UCV | 18.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo La Guaira win | 46.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 31.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 8.8% |
Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV stats
Deportivo La Guaira and UCV recent form
| Deportivo La Guaira |
WDLWWW |
| UCV |
DDWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo La Guaira and UCV going into this match
Deportivo La Guaira record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UCV record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Deportivo La Guaira wins
4Draws
3UCV wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Deportivo La Guaira | UCV | Venezuela Primera División | 0-0 |
| 2026-05-12 | UCV | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | UCV | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Deportivo La Guaira | UCV | Copa Venezuela | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-10 | UCV | Deportivo La Guaira | Copa Venezuela | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-11 | UCV | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-21 | Deportivo La Guaira | UCV | Venezuela Primera División | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-16 | UCV | Deportivo La Guaira | Venezuela Primera División | 3-2 |
| 2025-02-02 | Deportivo La Guaira | UCV | Venezuela Primera División | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-03 | Deportivo La Guaira | UCV | Primera División | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo La Guaira vs UCV odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 26.7%, away 20.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.70 | 3.36 | 4.64 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.45 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.36 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.43 | 4.31 |
| SBO | 1.62 | 3.24 | 3.93 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.70 ▼ -0.01
X
3.36 ▼ -0.05
2
4.40 ▼ -0.05
2 snapshots recorded, from .