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Venezuela Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 7

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV

1 – 1 Full time

16′E. Mosquera
23′W. S. Ramirez Holguin
50′Juan Camilo Zapata
52′Wilken Ramírez
57′A. MonteroR. Chacon
57′J. AraujoJ. Alegria
61′Edwin Mosquera
68′Kendrys Silva
71′S. SosaW. Lugo
71′E. MosqueraC. Colmenares
79′D. MatheusA. Pena
81′Juan Diego Alegría Arango
82′Alexander Gonzalez
82′J. ZapataD. De Sousa
88′W. S. Ramirez HolguinG. Montes
88′J. HernandezE. Albarran
88′H. AcostaC. Caicedo

Estadio Metropolitano de Merida , MéridaReferee: R. Cueva

Estudiantes de Merida FC 39%
Draw 29%
UCV 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEstudiantes de Merida FCDrawUCV
Model47.1%27.6%25.3%
Market36.4%28.9%34.7%
Final39.1%28.6%32.4%
Edge+10.7%-1.3%-9.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Estudiantes de Merida FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.09.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Estudiantes de Merida FC below the model: +10.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Estudiantes de ↓ / UCV → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 13% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Estudiantes de Merida FC and UCV expected goals

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1.56
UCV 1.09

Total expected goals: 2.65

Estudiantes de Merida FC and UCV attack and defence ratings

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 0.99 -1%

UCV

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.38 +38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV: result vs prediction

Estudiantes de Merida FC 1 – 1 UCV

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 7 fixtures

Venezuela Primera División

Before and after this match

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Estudiantes de Merida FC 39.1% 2.56 +10.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.4% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.7% 1.86 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.4% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.1% 1.88 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Estudiantes de Merida FC39.1%
Draw28.6%
UCV32.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
Both teams to scoreYes53.7%
No46.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.6%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)60.9%
Handicap -1Estudiantes de Merida FC win24.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.2%
Loss53.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
1-09.8%
2-19.4%

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV stats

Estudiantes de Merida FC and UCV recent form

newest first
Estudiantes de Merida FC WDWLWD
UCV WLLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Estudiantes de Merida FC and UCV going into this match

league record before kick-off

Estudiantes de Merida FC record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

UCV record

  • They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3Estudiantes de Merida FC wins 2Draws 4UCV wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-14UCVEstudiantes de Merida FCVenezuela Primera División1-1
2025-07-23Estudiantes de Merida FCUCVVenezuela Primera División0-0
2025-02-14UCVEstudiantes de Merida FCVenezuela Primera División2-1
2024-09-14UCVEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División3-1
2024-03-19Estudiantes de Merida FCUCVPrimera División0-1
2023-07-22Estudiantes de Merida FCUCVPrimera División2-0
2023-04-22UCVEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División3-2
2022-06-10Estudiantes de Merida FCUCVPrimera División3-0
2022-06-04UCVEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Estudiantes de Merida FC vs UCV odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.4%, draw 28.9%, away 34.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.50 3.20 2.60
1xBet 2.51 3.08 2.57
Bet365 2.45 3.10 2.55
BetVictor 2.50 3.25 2.60
Betano 2.55 3.15 2.65
Betfair 2.45 3.10 2.63
Dafabet 2.55 3.15 2.70
Marathonbet 2.48 3.06 2.61
Pinnacle 2.54 3.07 2.69
SBO 2.32 2.94 2.44
Superbet 2.30 3.30 2.82
Unibet 2.23 3.25 2.75
William Hill 2.50 3.20 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 —
X 3.15 —
2 2.62 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .