Garuda Lions
Today
Venezuela Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 8

Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC

1 – 0 Full time

21′jean gutierez
26′Cristopher Rodriguez
30′Eric Ramirez
36′Juan Camilo Pérez Vasco
39′Hector Acosta
42′Alexander González
58′Bryan Castillo
64′Bryan CastilloYohandry Orozco
64′Darwin MachísExon Arzú
74′Jesus LoboNestor Zambrano
81′Darwin MatheusJohandry Lacruz
81′Hector AcostaGeovan Montes
88′Joshuan BeriosJonathan Bilbao
88′Maurice CovaSebastian Mendoza
88′Exon ArzúLoureins Manuel Martínez Eizaga
89′Christian RivasAngelo Pena

Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado, ValenciaReferee: A. Velasquez

Carabobo FC 58%
Draw 25%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCarabobo FCDrawEstudiantes de Merida FC
Model52.5%28.7%18.8%
Market60.0%23.6%16.4%
Final58.1%24.9%17.0%
Edge-7.5%+5.1%+2.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Carabobo FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.79.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Carabobo FC ↓ / Estudiantes de → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 1 14% 13% 2 11% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 40%
No goals 11%

Carabobo FC and Estudiantes de Merida FC expected goals

Carabobo FC 1.49
Estudiantes de Merida FC 0.79

Total expected goals: 2.28

Carabobo FC and Estudiantes de Merida FC attack and defence ratings

Carabobo FC

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC: result vs prediction

Carabobo FC 1 – 0 Estudiantes de Merida FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 8 fixtures

Venezuela Primera División

Before and after this match

Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Carabobo FC 58.1% 1.72 -7.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.0% 1.67 — —
Both teams to score No 56.3% 1.78 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.0% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.5% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Carabobo FC58.1%
Draw24.9%
Estudiantes de Merida FC17.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540.0%
Under 2.560.0%
Both teams to scoreYes43.7%
No56.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.0%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)41.9%
Handicap -1Carabobo FC win27.6%
Push (exactly one goal)24.9%
Loss47.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.0%
1-113.3%
0-011.4%

Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC stats

Carabobo FC and Estudiantes de Merida FC recent form

newest first
Carabobo FC LDDWLW
Estudiantes de Merida FC DWDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Carabobo FC and Estudiantes de Merida FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Carabobo FC record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Estudiantes de Merida FC record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Carabobo FC wins 2Draws 1Estudiantes de Merida FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-17Estudiantes de Merida FCCarabobo FCVenezuela Primera División0-2
2026-05-13Carabobo FCEstudiantes de Merida FCVenezuela Primera División1-0
2026-03-18Estudiantes de Merida FCCarabobo FCVenezuela Primera División3-2
2025-07-05Carabobo FCEstudiantes de Merida FCVenezuela Primera División2-1
2025-01-25Estudiantes de Merida FCCarabobo FCVenezuela Primera División0-2
2024-11-17Estudiantes de Merida FCCarabobo FCPrimera División0-3
2024-10-27Carabobo FCEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División2-0
2024-09-22Estudiantes de Merida FCCarabobo FCPrimera División0-0
2024-03-23Carabobo FCEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División1-0
2023-06-22Estudiantes de Merida FCCarabobo FCPrimera División1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Carabobo FC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.0%, draw 23.6%, away 16.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.53 3.85 5.40
1xBet 1.50 3.85 5.71
Bet365 1.50 3.75 5.50
BetVictor 1.50 3.90 6.00
Betano 1.55 3.80 5.50
Betfair 1.50 3.90 5.00
Dafabet 1.53 4.00 5.60
Marathonbet 1.49 3.85 5.50
Pinnacle 1.53 3.79 5.68
Superbet 1.53 3.90 5.40
Unibet 1.41 3.90 6.25
William Hill 1.57 3.60 5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.52 ▼ -0.03
X 3.85 ▲ +0.08
2 5.55 ▲ +0.16

6 snapshots recorded, from .