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Venezuela Primera División · Full time ·Clausura - 6

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC

1 – 2 Full time

44′J. Hernandez
47′G. Ortiz
49′M. Sulbaran
55′S. ZeballosJ. Herrera
55′A. UribeF. Londono
64′R. Ibarra
64′M. GonzalezJ. Correa
64′M. SulbaranJ. Meza
73′J. Lobo
73′A. MonteroR. Chacon
79′R. IbarraJ. Perdomo
82′J. LoboJ. Moreno
82′D. MatheusE. Albarran
82′J. HernandezC. Caicedo
83′R. Chacon
85′R. IveyJ. Gutierez
89′J. Moreno

Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, CaracasReferee: A. Herrera

Deportivo La Guaira 63%
Draw 23%
Estudiantes de Merida FC 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDeportivo La GuairaDrawEstudiantes de Merida FC
Model65.1%21.2%13.7%
Market62.4%23.7%13.9%
Final63.0%23.1%13.9%
Edge+2.8%-2.6%-0.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Deportivo La Guaira

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Deportivo La Guaira below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Deportivo La G ↓ / Estudiantes de → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 9% 10% 2 11% 10% 3 8% 7% 4+ 7% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Deportivo La Guaira and Estudiantes de Merida FC expected goals

Deportivo La Guaira 2.16
Estudiantes de Merida FC 0.91

Total expected goals: 3.07

Deportivo La Guaira and Estudiantes de Merida FC attack and defence ratings

Deportivo La Guaira

Attack 1.56 +56%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Estudiantes de Merida FC

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC: result vs prediction

Deportivo La Guaira 1 – 2 Estudiantes de Merida FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Clausura - 6 fixtures

Venezuela Primera División

Before and after this match

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportivo La Guaira 63.0% 1.59 +2.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.2% 1.69 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.7% 1.86 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.1% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Deportivo La Guaira win 42.4% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Deportivo La Guaira63.0%
Draw23.1%
Estudiantes de Merida FC13.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%
Both teams to scoreYes53.7%
No46.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.1%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)37.0%
Handicap -1Deportivo La Guaira win42.4%
Push (exactly one goal)22.8%
Loss34.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.9%
1-110.0%
2-19.9%

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC stats

Deportivo La Guaira and Estudiantes de Merida FC recent form

newest first
Deportivo La Guaira WWWLWL
Estudiantes de Merida FC DWLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Deportivo La Guaira and Estudiantes de Merida FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Deportivo La Guaira record

  • They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Estudiantes de Merida FC record

  • They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Deportivo La Guaira wins 2Draws 2Estudiantes de Merida FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-06Estudiantes de Merida FCDeportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División0-1
2025-08-24Estudiantes de Merida FCDeportivo La GuairaVenezuela Primera División1-2
2025-03-16Deportivo La GuairaEstudiantes de Merida FCVenezuela Primera División2-1
2024-11-14Deportivo La GuairaEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División3-1
2024-10-30Estudiantes de Merida FCDeportivo La GuairaPrimera División0-1
2024-09-27Deportivo La GuairaEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División1-1
2024-07-07Deportivo La GuairaEstudiantes de Merida FCCopa Venezuela0-0
2024-03-31Estudiantes de Merida FCDeportivo La GuairaPrimera División1-2
2023-09-02Estudiantes de Merida FCDeportivo La GuairaPrimera División2-1
2023-03-04Deportivo La GuairaEstudiantes de Merida FCPrimera División1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Deportivo La Guaira vs Estudiantes de Merida FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.4%, draw 23.7%, away 13.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.45 3.75 6.75
1xBet 1.43 3.78 7.27
Bet365 1.45 3.80 6.25
BetVictor 1.45 3.90 7.00
Betano 1.50 3.90 6.10
Betfair 1.44 3.90 6.50
Dafabet 1.50 3.85 6.40
Marathonbet 1.42 3.78 6.95
Pinnacle 1.49 3.81 6.40
Superbet 1.50 3.85 6.00
William Hill 1.44 3.80 6.50

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.