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UEFA Nations League · Full time ·League D - 4

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

1 – 0 Full time

25′Abdulakh khaybulaev
33′Abdulakh khaybulaev
43′Modestas Vorobjovas
45′Tural BayramovVüsal İsgändärli
45′Modestas VorobjovasLukas Michelbrink
45′Edgaras UtkusKipras Kazukolovas
51′Ayxan Abbasov
54′Artur Dolžnikov
57′Vüsal İsgändärli
64′Abdulakh khaybulaevRenat Dadaşov
64′Oruc MəmmədovEmil Safarov
67′Adrian LickunasMotiejus Burba
68′Vykintas SlivkaEligijus Jankauskas
80′Aleksey IsaevC. Nuriyev
83′Rokas LekiatasIgnas Venckus
88′Tellur MutallimovElvin Badalov
90′Elvin Badalov
90′Eligijus Jankauskas
90′A. Kučys

Bakcell Arena, BakuReferee: Gustavo Correia

Azerbaijan 35%
Draw 31%
Lithuania 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 3
38 Possession % 62
2 Corners 5
14 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
3 Saves 6
222 Accurate passes 407

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Azerbaijan vs Lithuania

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAzerbaijanDrawLithuania
Model21.3%28.3%50.3%
Market39.6%31.4%29.0%
Final35.0%30.6%34.3%
Edge-18.3%-3.1%+21.3%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Azerbaijan ↓ / Lithuania → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 12% 10% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Azerbaijan and Lithuania expected goals

Azerbaijan 0.91
Lithuania 1.52

Total expected goals: 2.43

Azerbaijan and Lithuania attack and defence ratings

Azerbaijan

Attack 0.61 -39%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Lithuania

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: result vs prediction

Azerbaijan 1 – 0 Lithuania

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League D - 4 fixtures

UEFA Nations League

Before and after this match

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Azerbaijan 35.0% 2.85 -18.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.2% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score No 52.1% 1.92 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.4% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 78.7% 1.27 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Azerbaijan35.0%
Draw30.6%
Lithuania34.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.8%
Under 2.556.2%
Both teams to scoreYes47.9%
No52.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.7%
12 (either side)69.4%
X2 (draw or away)65.0%
Handicap -1Azerbaijan win7.6%
Push (exactly one goal)13.8%
Loss78.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
0-112.2%
0-210.2%

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania stats

Azerbaijan and Lithuania recent form

newest first
Azerbaijan DDLLLL
Lithuania DWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Azerbaijan wins 2Draws 0Lithuania wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-27LithuaniaAzerbaijanUEFA Nations League1-1
2019-03-25AzerbaijanLithuaniaFriendlies0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Azerbaijan vs Lithuania odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.6%, draw 31.4%, away 29.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.42 3.13 3.36
Bet365 2.38 3.10 3.10
BetVictor 2.38 3.00 3.25
Betano 2.35 3.00 3.25
Betfair 2.30 2.80 3.20
Marathonbet 2.39 3.10 3.32
Pinnacle 2.41 2.93 3.42
SBO 2.26 2.73 2.78
William Hill 2.25 2.88 3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.38 ▲ +0.10
X 3.00 —
2 3.25 ▼ -0.04

4 snapshots recorded, from .