Lithuania
vs
Azerbaijan
1 – 1 Full time
| 9′ | A. Kučys | ||
| 14′ | Mahir Emreli | ||
| 27′ | Rahil Mammadov | ||
| 39′ | Tellur Mutallimov | ||
| 45′ | Emil SafarovRufat Abdullazada | ||
| 52′ | Gvidas Gineitis | ||
| 56′ | Aleksey Isaev | ||
| 57′ | Vykintas SlivkaDomantas Šluta | ||
| 60′ | Renat DadaşovMusa Qurbanly | ||
| 60′ | Rufat AbbasovTural Bayramov | ||
| 66′ | Lukas MichelbrinkModestas Vorobjovas | ||
| 66′ | Adrian LickūnasMotiejus Burba | ||
| 77′ | Artur DolžnikovEligijus Jankauskas | ||
| 77′ | A. KučysIgnas Venckus | ||
| 87′ | Tellur MutallimovVüsal İsgändärli | ||
| 90′ | Abdulakh khaybulaevCəlal Hüseynov |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 0 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 323 | Accurate passes | 311 |
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lithuania vs Azerbaijan
| Probability | Lithuania | Draw | Azerbaijan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.2% | 27.6% | 30.2% |
| Market | 40.3% | 31.0% | 28.7% |
| Final | 40.8% | 30.2% | 29.0% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -3.4% | +1.6% |
Why Lithuania
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lithuania and Azerbaijan expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Lithuania and Azerbaijan attack and defence ratings
Lithuania
Azerbaijan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan: result vs prediction
Lithuania 1 – 1 Azerbaijan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League D - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lithuania | 40.8% | 2.45 | +1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lithuania | 40.8% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Azerbaijan | 29.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lithuania win | 21.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 57.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 8.4% |
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan stats
Lithuania and Azerbaijan recent form
| Lithuania |
WLLLLD |
| Azerbaijan |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-25 | Azerbaijan | Lithuania | Friendlies | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lithuania vs Azerbaijan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 31.0%, away 28.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.08 | 3.52 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 2.80 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 3.06 | 3.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.09 | 3.55 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 2.80 | 2.91 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
19 snapshots recorded, from .