Malta
vs
Gibraltar
1 – 1 Full time
| 22′ | Graeme Torrilla | ||
| 53′ | Joseph Mbong | ||
| 61′ | James Scanlon | ||
| 63′ | Ylyas Chouaref | ||
| 72′ | Joseph Mbong | ||
| 73′ | Joseph MbongPaul Mbong | ||
| 73′ | Alexander·SatarianoPaiber Brandon Diego | ||
| 82′ | Teddy TeumaKeyon Ewurum | ||
| 86′ | Nicholas PozoHan Stevens | ||
| 88′ | Juan CorbalanAndrea Zammit | ||
| 88′ | Kurt ShawZach Muscat | ||
| 90′ | Zach Muscat |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 451 | Accurate passes | 251 |
Malta vs Gibraltar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Malta vs Gibraltar
| Probability | Malta | Draw | Gibraltar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.9% | 25.5% | 18.5% |
| Market | 74.0% | 18.6% | 7.4% |
| Final | 69.5% | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Edge | -18.0% | +6.9% | +11.1% |
Why Malta
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Malta and Gibraltar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Malta and Gibraltar attack and defence ratings
Malta
Gibraltar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Malta vs Gibraltar: result vs prediction
Malta 1 – 1 Gibraltar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League D - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Malta vs Gibraltar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malta | 69.5% | 1.44 | -18.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.8% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malta | 69.5% |
| Draw | 20.4% | |
| Gibraltar | 10.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Malta win | 32.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 43.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | |
| 2-0 | 10.5% |
Malta vs Gibraltar stats
Malta vs Gibraltar head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-06 | Malta | Gibraltar | Friendlies | 1-0 |
| 2020-10-07 | Malta | Gibraltar | Friendlies | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Malta vs Gibraltar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.0%, draw 18.6%, away 7.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 5.41 | 13.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.28 | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.25 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.29 | 4.85 | 11.25 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.28 | 5.35 | 13.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 5.49 | 12.60 |
| SBO | 1.24 | 4.94 | 10.60 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 4.80 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .