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Albania Superliga · Full time ·Matchday 3

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce

2 – 1 Full time

14′A. Albanese
34′S. Nasr
46′A. KryeziuI. Diabate
46′R. BakalliK. Loukili
46′J. MontenegroD. Adjessa
46′K. GrazhdaniL. Lleshi
60′Egnatia RrogozhinëI. Gruda
65′A. Aleksi
71′K. Loukili
74′N. AjetovikjE. Ndreca
79′S. NasrS. Abubakar
83′M. Alia
85′K. Loukili
89′D. JanaqiE. Totre
89′K. VangjeliA. Diallo
90′S. Abubakar
90′G. Smajli
90′A. Yago
90′B. MusaN. Velichkovski

Demrozi Stadium

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 63%
Draw 23%
Skenderbeu Korce 15%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEgnatia RrogozhinëDrawSkenderbeu Korce
Model69.9%18.3%11.8%
Market60.1%24.1%15.8%
Final62.5%22.6%14.8%
Edge+9.8%-5.8%-4.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Egnatia Rrogozhinë below the model: +9.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Egnatia Rrogoz ↓ / Skenderbeu Kor → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 8% 2 10% 9% 3 8% 8% 4+ 9% 9%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Skenderbeu Korce expected goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2.48
Skenderbeu Korce 0.96

Total expected goals: 3.44

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Skenderbeu Korce attack and defence ratings

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Attack 1.83 +83%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Skenderbeu Korce

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce: result vs prediction

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2 – 1 Skenderbeu Korce

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Albania Superliga

Before and after this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 62.5% 1.60 +9.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.8% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.3% 1.75 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 85.2% 1.17 — —
Handicap -1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë win 48.7% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Egnatia Rrogozhinë62.5%
Draw22.6%
Skenderbeu Korce14.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%
Both teams to scoreYes57.3%
No42.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)85.2%
12 (either side)77.4%
X2 (draw or away)37.5%
Handicap -1Egnatia Rrogozhinë win48.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.2%
Loss30.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.9%
2-19.5%
1-18.4%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce stats

Egnatia Rrogozhinë and Skenderbeu Korce recent form

newest first
Egnatia Rrogozhinë WLWDWL
Skenderbeu Korce LD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins 3Draws 3Skenderbeu Korce wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-04-19Egnatia RrogozhinëSkenderbeu KorceSuperliga0-0
2025-02-22Skenderbeu KorceEgnatia RrogozhinëSuperliga1-0
2024-12-08Egnatia RrogozhinëSkenderbeu KorceSuperliga1-0
2024-10-05Skenderbeu KorceEgnatia RrogozhinëSuperliga0-1
2024-03-16Skenderbeu KorceEgnatia RrogozhinëSuperliga2-0
2024-01-13Egnatia RrogozhinëSkenderbeu KorceSuperliga1-0
2023-10-28Skenderbeu KorceEgnatia RrogozhinëSuperliga1-1
2023-08-26Egnatia RrogozhinëSkenderbeu KorceSuperliga0-1
2023-02-02Egnatia RrogozhinëSkenderbeu KorceCup1-1
2023-01-18Skenderbeu KorceEgnatia RrogozhinëCup0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Skenderbeu Korce odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.1%, draw 24.1%, away 15.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.50 3.70 5.40
1xBet 1.48 3.64 6.63
Bet365 1.55 3.40 5.75
Betano 1.57 3.70 4.85
Betfair 1.44 4.00 6.00
Dafabet 1.54 3.85 5.20
Marathonbet 1.47 3.78 5.95
Pinnacle 1.46 3.90 5.38
Superbet 1.52 3.85 5.65
William Hill 1.50 3.70 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.50 —
X 3.74 ▲ +0.02
2 5.70 ▲ +0.05

4 snapshots recorded, from .