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Albania Superliga · Full time ·Matchday 3

Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani

2 – 1 Full time

9′A. Alhassan
23′Y. Epitaux
25′A. Nikaj
31′A. Deliu
38′H. Berisha
46′A. BoriciL. Tresa
62′A. IbrahimO. Niang
65′L. Vila
70′A. NikajA. Mazari
70′I. DialloE. Lukoki Mateso
75′U. IsmailiF. Ruci
76′S. MetaF. Farruku
76′H. BerishaI. Mustapha
80′R. Silva-RichardsD. Metaj
84′A. DeliuD. Ibraimi
90′M. Ayodeji

Elbasan Arena, Elbasani

Dinamo Tirana 43%
Draw 30%
AF Elbasani 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDinamo TiranaDrawAF Elbasani
Model50.2%25.8%24.0%
Market40.6%30.9%28.5%
Final43.0%29.6%27.4%
Edge+9.6%-5.2%-4.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Dinamo Tirana

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.15.
  • The market prices Dinamo Tirana below the model: +9.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dinamo Tirana ↓ / AF Elbasani → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 8% 12% 6% 2 8% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 7%

Dinamo Tirana and AF Elbasani expected goals

Dinamo Tirana 1.75
AF Elbasani 1.15

Total expected goals: 2.90

Dinamo Tirana and AF Elbasani attack and defence ratings

Dinamo Tirana

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.05 +5%

AF Elbasani

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani: result vs prediction

Dinamo Tirana 2 – 1 AF Elbasani

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Albania Superliga

Before and after this match

Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dinamo Tirana 43.0% 2.33 +9.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.5% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.7% 1.73 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.8% 2.01 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dinamo Tirana43.0%
Draw29.6%
AF Elbasani27.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%
Both teams to scoreYes57.7%
No42.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.6%
12 (either side)70.4%
X2 (draw or away)57.0%
Handicap -1Dinamo Tirana win28.2%
Push (exactly one goal)22.0%
Loss49.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
2-19.7%
1-08.5%

Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani stats

Dinamo Tirana and AF Elbasani recent form

newest first
Dinamo Tirana WLLDWL
AF Elbasani DDDDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

4Dinamo Tirana wins 2Draws 3AF Elbasani wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-24AF ElbasaniDinamo TiranaAlbania Superliga3-0
2026-04-04Dinamo TiranaAF ElbasaniAlbania Superliga4-1
2026-01-25AF ElbasaniDinamo TiranaAlbania Superliga2-0
2025-11-22Dinamo TiranaAF ElbasaniAlbania Superliga1-1
2025-09-14AF ElbasaniDinamo TiranaAlbania Superliga1-0
2025-03-16AF ElbasaniDinamo TiranaSuperliga1-1
2025-01-19Dinamo TiranaAF ElbasaniSuperliga3-1
2024-11-04AF ElbasaniDinamo TiranaSuperliga0-5
2024-09-01Dinamo TiranaAF ElbasaniSuperliga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dinamo Tirana vs AF Elbasani odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.6%, draw 30.9%, away 28.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.21 2.95 3.22
Bet365 2.38 2.80 2.90
Marathonbet 2.19 2.95 3.15
Pinnacle 2.18 2.90 3.12
William Hill 2.25 2.80 3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.21 ▼ -0.21
X 2.90 ▼ -0.09
2 3.15 ▲ +0.41

4 snapshots recorded, from .