Garuda Lions
Today
Albania Superliga · Full time ·Matchday 4

AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

2 – 1 Full time

21′E. BitriJ. Montenegro
34′I. Gruda
39′A. Mazari
41′A. Nikaj
44′J. Montenegro
45′A. Nikaj
45′A. Nikaj
46′B. DukaA. Kryeziu
55′B. Lila
55′Y. Epitaux
57′E. NdrecaA. Yago
57′A. AleksiI. Diabate
66′A. MazariA. Deliu
70′I. GrudaD. Adjessa
75′I. DialloR. Hebaj
75′A. BoriciA. Kasa
84′K. KasaF. Antovski
85′A. IbrahimO. Niang
89′N. Ajetovikj
89′B. Lulaj

Elbasan Arena, Elbasani

AF Elbasani 32%
Draw 27%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAF ElbasaniDrawEgnatia Rrogozhinë
Model23.7%22.2%54.1%
Market34.9%28.9%36.3%
Final32.1%27.2%40.7%
Edge-11.2%-6.7%+17.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.41.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Egnatia Rrogozhinë below the model: +17.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AF Elbasani ↓ / Egnatia Rrogoz → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 7% 5% 1 9% 9% 7% 6% 2 6% 7% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

AF Elbasani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë expected goals

AF Elbasani 1.41
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2.18

Total expected goals: 3.59

AF Elbasani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack and defence ratings

AF Elbasani

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Attack 1.77 +77%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë: result vs prediction

AF Elbasani 2 – 1 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Albania Superliga

Before and after this match

AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Egnatia Rrogozhinë 40.7% 2.45 +17.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.5% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 67.9% 1.47 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.8% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.9% 2.18 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AF Elbasani32.1%
Draw27.2%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë40.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%
Both teams to scoreYes67.9%
No32.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.3%
12 (either side)72.8%
X2 (draw or away)67.9%
Handicap -1Egnatia Rrogozhinë win33.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss45.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.3%
1-29.2%
1-36.7%

AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë stats

AF Elbasani and Egnatia Rrogozhinë recent form

newest first
AF Elbasani LDDDDW
Egnatia Rrogozhinë WWLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2AF Elbasani wins 5Draws 3Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-17AF ElbasaniEgnatia RrogozhinëAlbania Superliga0-4
2026-04-22AF ElbasaniEgnatia RrogozhinëCup1-1
2026-04-08Egnatia RrogozhinëAF ElbasaniCup1-1
2026-03-20AF ElbasaniEgnatia RrogozhinëAlbania Superliga0-0
2026-01-18Egnatia RrogozhinëAF ElbasaniAlbania Superliga2-2
2025-11-09AF ElbasaniEgnatia RrogozhinëAlbania Superliga1-0
2025-08-30Egnatia RrogozhinëAF ElbasaniAlbania Superliga1-1
2025-04-07Egnatia RrogozhinëAF ElbasaniSuperliga1-2
2025-02-09AF ElbasaniEgnatia RrogozhinëSuperliga1-2
2024-11-30Egnatia RrogozhinëAF ElbasaniSuperliga3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

AF Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 28.9%, away 36.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.64 3.08 2.45
Bet365 2.40 3.10 2.62
Betano 2.52 3.25 2.45
Betfair 2.55 3.20 2.40
Marathonbet 2.64 3.08 2.45
Pinnacle 2.34 3.08 2.63
William Hill 2.60 2.90 2.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.55 ▼ -0.21
X 3.08 ▼ -0.10
2 2.45 ▲ +0.15

5 snapshots recorded, from .