Tirana
vs
AF Elbasani
2 – 2 Full time
| 17′ | K. Kasa | ||
| 23′ | A. Nikaj | ||
| 30′ | R. Xhixha | ||
| 37′ | A. Mazari | ||
| 46′ | S. VogliB. Ilievski | ||
| 54′ | R. Xhixha | ||
| 61′ | A. BoriciA. Deliu | ||
| 61′ | K. KasaF. Antovski | ||
| 63′ | B. Lulaj | ||
| 66′ | D. Hazrollaj | ||
| 68′ | I. DialloR. Hebaj | ||
| 71′ | T. KisE. Daci | ||
| 79′ | A. MazariA. Kasa | ||
| 79′ | B. LulajY. Epitaux | ||
| 83′ | D. HazrollajB. Berisha | ||
| 90′ | B. Ilievski |
Tirana vs AF Elbasani overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tirana vs AF Elbasani
| Probability | Tirana | Draw | AF Elbasani |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 24.1% | 21.2% |
| Market | 36.1% | 28.4% | 35.5% |
| Final | 40.7% | 27.3% | 31.9% |
| Edge | +18.6% | -4.3% | -14.3% |
Why Tirana
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tirana below the model: +18.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tirana and AF Elbasani expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Tirana and AF Elbasani attack and defence ratings
Tirana
AF Elbasani
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tirana vs AF Elbasani: result vs prediction
Tirana 2 – 2 AF Elbasani
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tirana vs AF Elbasani markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tirana | 40.7% | 2.45 | +18.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tirana | 40.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| AF Elbasani | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.1% |
| No | 40.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tirana win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 45.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.7% |
Tirana vs AF Elbasani stats
Tirana and AF Elbasani recent form
| Tirana |
DWLLWW |
| AF Elbasani |
WLDDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tirana vs AF Elbasani head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | AF Elbasani | Tirana | Albania Superliga | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Tirana | AF Elbasani | Albania Superliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-24 | AF Elbasani | Tirana | Albania Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Tirana | AF Elbasani | Albania Superliga | 1-4 |
| 2025-03-31 | AF Elbasani | Tirana | Superliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-01 | Tirana | AF Elbasani | Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-24 | AF Elbasani | Tirana | Superliga | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-16 | Tirana | AF Elbasani | Superliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tirana vs AF Elbasani odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.1%, draw 28.4%, away 35.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.14 | 2.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.15 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.14 | 2.51 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .