Algeria Ligue 1
·
Postponed
·Matchday 10
ES Setif
vs
US Biskra
Garuda Lions Prediction: ES Setif
2 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.59.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
ES Setif
78%
Draw
16%
US Biskra
6%
Chance ES Setif wins
78%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
93%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
37%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 0
16% of simulated outcomes
ES Setif vs US Biskra overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Setif vs US Biskra
| Probability | ES Setif | Draw | US Biskra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77.7% | 16.5% | 5.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 77.7% | 16.5% | 5.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ES Setif
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
ES Setif and US Biskra expected goals
ES Setif
2.20
US Biskra
0.59
Total expected goals: 2.80
ES Setif and US Biskra attack and defence ratings
ES Setif
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
0.97 -3%
US Biskra
Attack
0.68 -32%
Defence
1.48 +48%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
ES Setif vs US Biskra markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Setif | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.2% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | ES Setif win | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Setif | 77.7% |
| Draw | 16.5% | |
| US Biskra | 5.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.4% |
| No | 62.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Setif win | 50.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 26.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 15.7% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | |
| 3-0 | 12.2% |
ES Setif vs US Biskra stats
ES Setif and US Biskra recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ES Setif and US Biskra season so far
ES Setif record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
US Biskra record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.