Deportivo Maipu
vs
Quilmes
1 – 0 Full time
Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes
| Probability | Deportivo Maipu | Draw | Quilmes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.4% | 27.9% | 23.7% |
| Market | 38.2% | 32.1% | 29.8% |
| Final | 40.7% | 31.0% | 28.3% |
| Edge | +10.2% | -4.1% | -6.1% |
Why Deportivo Maipu
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo Maipu below the model: +10.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportivo Maipu and Quilmes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Deportivo Maipu and Quilmes attack and defence ratings
Deportivo Maipu
Quilmes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes: result vs prediction
Deportivo Maipu 1 – 0 Quilmes
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
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- San Telmo vs Deportivo Moron — team news & stats
- Deportivo Madryn vs Atletico Mitre
- Tristan Suarez v Agropecuario — match page
- Patronato vs Gimnasia Jujuy — team news & stats
- San Martin S.J. vs Gimnasia Y Tiro
- Almagro v Colegiales — match page
- Nueva Chicago vs Atlanta — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maipu | 40.7% | 2.46 | +10.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Maipu | 40.7% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Quilmes | 28.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% |
| No | 48.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Maipu win | 25.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes stats
Deportivo Maipu and Quilmes recent form
| Deportivo Maipu |
WLWLDW |
| Quilmes |
WDWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Deportivo Maipu and Quilmes going into this match
Deportivo Maipu record
- They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
Quilmes record
- They have won 8 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 27 matches.
Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Quilmes | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-21 | Quilmes | Deportivo Maipu | Primera Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-16 | Deportivo Maipu | Quilmes | Primera Nacional | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Deportivo Maipu vs Quilmes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.2%, draw 32.1%, away 29.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 2.82 | 3.20 |
| 888Sport | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.90 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 2.85 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.46 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.30 | 2.82 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 2.97 | 3.33 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 2.78 | 2.78 |
| Superbet | 2.47 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Unibet | 2.08 | 2.90 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .