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A-League · ·Matchday 4

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory

Garuda Lions Prediction: Melbourne Victory

1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.33.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Melbourne Victory is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Melbourne Victory

Coopers Stadium, AdelaideReferee: D. Elder

Adelaide United 32%
Draw 26%
Melbourne Victory 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Melbourne Victory wins
42%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
61%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAdelaide UnitedDrawMelbourne Victory
Model29.5%26.2%44.3%
Market33.2%26.0%40.7%
Final32.3%26.1%41.6%
Edge-0.9%+0.0%+0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Melbourne Victory

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.33.

Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.1% per unit staked (our 41.6% × 2.40 − 1).

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory match preview

Adelaide United faces Melbourne Victory in an A-League clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Adelaide has recorded three losses in their last five matches, alongside a draw and a win, while Melbourne's recent results include two draws, two losses, and a win. The model predicts a close contest, assigning Adelaide a 33% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 40% chance for Melbourne to win.

The expected goals for this match are 1.32 for Adelaide United and 1.67 for Melbourne Victory, suggesting a competitive game. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Melbourne, with a 61% probability that both teams will score and a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Adelaide Unite ↓ / Melbourne Vict → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 7% 1 12% 9% 2 7% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory expected goals

Adelaide United 1.33
Melbourne Victory 1.66

Total expected goals: 2.99

Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory attack and defence ratings

Adelaide United

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Melbourne Victory

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

A-League

Before and after this match

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Melbourne Victory 41.6% 2.40 +0.9% 2.40
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.5% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.7% 1.65 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.7% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Adelaide United32.3%
Draw26.1%
Melbourne Victory41.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.5%
Under 2.542.5%
Both teams to scoreYes60.7%
No39.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.4%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)67.7%
Handicap -1Melbourne Victory win23.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.6%
Loss55.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
1-29.2%
2-17.4%
Compare prices for this pick

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory stats

Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory recent form

newest first
Adelaide United LLLDWW
Melbourne Victory DDLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Adelaide United wins 3Draws 5Melbourne Victory wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-27Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedA-League1-1
2026-01-17Adelaide UnitedMelbourne VictoryA-League2-1
2025-12-13Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedA-League2-1
2025-03-29Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedA-League5-3
2025-01-18Adelaide UnitedMelbourne VictoryA-League3-2
2024-09-21Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedAustralia Cup1-0
2024-03-09Adelaide UnitedMelbourne VictoryA-League1-2
2023-12-30Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedA-League2-0
2023-11-04Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedA-League1-1
2023-02-26Melbourne VictoryAdelaide UnitedA-League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.2%, draw 26.0%, away 40.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.93 3.65 2.38
Bet365 2.88 3.60 2.30
BetVictor 2.80 3.60 2.30
Betano 2.82 3.65 2.37
Betfair 2.80 3.60 2.30
Dafabet 2.85 3.70 2.40
Marathonbet 2.82 3.52 2.29
Pinnacle 2.94 3.62 2.32
SBO 2.76 3.36 2.13
William Hill 2.80 3.40 2.30
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.82 ▲ +0.27
X 3.60 —
2 2.30 ▼ -0.25

18 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Melbourne Victory Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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