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A-League · ·Matchday 4

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar

Garuda Lions Prediction: Macarthur

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.35.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Macarthur

Campbelltown Stadium, SydneyReferee: A. Kersey

Macarthur 41%
Draw 26%
Brisbane Roar 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Macarthur wins
41%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
63%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMacarthurDrawBrisbane Roar
Model47.8%24.9%27.3%
Market38.5%26.5%35.0%
Final40.8%26.1%33.1%
Edge+2.3%-0.4%-1.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Macarthur

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Macarthur below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.1% per unit staked (our 40.8% × 2.50 − 1).

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar match preview

Macarthur faces Brisbane Roar in an A-League matchup with Macarthur holding a 41% probability of winning, while Brisbane Roar stands at 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Macarthur, with an expected goals tally of 1.80 for Macarthur and 1.45 for Brisbane Roar. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with our model indicating a 65% chance that both teams will find the net.

In terms of recent form, Macarthur has recorded a mixed bag of results with a record of L-D-W-W-L-L, while Brisbane Roar's recent performances include D-W-L-L-D-D. The head-to-head encounters between the two teams show an even split, with each team winning once in their last two meetings. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Macarthur ↓ / Brisbane Roar → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 11% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Macarthur and Brisbane Roar expected goals

Macarthur 1.83
Brisbane Roar 1.35

Total expected goals: 3.17

Macarthur and Brisbane Roar attack and defence ratings

Macarthur

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Brisbane Roar

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

A-League

Before and after this match

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Macarthur 40.8% 2.45 +2.3% 2.50
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.4% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.1% 1.59 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.2% 1.92 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Macarthur40.8%
Draw26.1%
Brisbane Roar33.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.4%
Under 2.538.6%
Both teams to scoreYes63.1%
No36.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.9%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)59.2%
Handicap -1Macarthur win27.0%
Push (exactly one goal)20.8%
Loss52.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-19.4%
2-07.0%
Compare prices for this pick

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar stats

Macarthur and Brisbane Roar recent form

newest first
Macarthur DDWWLL
Brisbane Roar DWLLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Macarthur wins 3Draws 1Brisbane Roar wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-19MacarthurBrisbane RoarA-League2-1
2025-10-17Brisbane RoarMacarthurA-League1-0
2025-04-04Brisbane RoarMacarthurA-League1-5
2024-11-30MacarthurBrisbane RoarA-League4-4
2024-03-16Brisbane RoarMacarthurA-League1-2
2024-01-18Brisbane RoarMacarthurA-League1-3
2023-10-21MacarthurBrisbane RoarA-League1-1
2023-03-05MacarthurBrisbane RoarA-League3-2
2022-10-08Brisbane RoarMacarthurA-League0-0
2022-04-15MacarthurBrisbane RoarA-League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.5%, draw 26.5%, away 35.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.50 3.73 2.71
Bet365 2.50 3.30 2.75
BetVictor 2.45 3.50 2.63
Betano 2.47 3.55 2.75
Betfair 2.40 3.60 2.70
Dafabet 2.48 3.60 2.80
Marathonbet 2.43 3.62 2.63
Pinnacle 2.48 3.74 2.74
SBO 2.32 3.20 2.58
William Hill 2.40 3.40 2.60
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.46 ▲ +0.33
X 3.58 ▼ -0.01
2 2.71 ▼ -0.41

18 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Macarthur Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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