Brisbane Roar
vs
Auckland
Garuda Lions Prediction: Auckland
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.44.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Auckland is the favourite, not a value bet.
Brisbane Roar vs Auckland overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brisbane Roar vs Auckland
| Probability | Brisbane Roar | Draw | Auckland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 24.3% | 46.9% |
| Market | 32.6% | 27.8% | 39.6% |
| Final | 31.6% | 26.9% | 41.5% |
| Edge | -1.0% | -0.9% | +1.8% |
Why Auckland
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.2% per unit staked (our 41.5% × 2.44 − 1).
Brisbane Roar vs Auckland match preview
Brisbane Roar faces Auckland in their upcoming A-League match, with the probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Brisbane Roar has a 26% chance of winning, while Auckland is favored with a 47% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with both teams expected to score at a rate of 56%. Brisbane Roar's recent form shows a mix of results, including one win in their last six matches, while Auckland has been more consistent, registering three wins in their last six.
In terms of expected goals, Brisbane Roar is projected to score 1.05, whereas Auckland is forecasted to net 1.87. The head-to-head record from their last two encounters shows Brisbane Roar with no wins, one draw, and one loss against Auckland. With a confidence grade of C, the match promises to be closely contested.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brisbane Roar and Auckland expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.32
Brisbane Roar and Auckland attack and defence ratings
Brisbane Roar
Auckland
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brisbane Roar vs Auckland markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auckland | 41.5% | 2.41 | +1.8% | 2.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.7% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brisbane Roar | 31.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Auckland | 41.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.7% |
| No | 34.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Auckland win | 26.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
Brisbane Roar vs Auckland stats
Brisbane Roar and Auckland recent form
| Brisbane Roar |
WLLDDL |
| Auckland |
LWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brisbane Roar vs Auckland head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | Brisbane Roar | Auckland | A-League | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Auckland | Brisbane Roar | A-League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brisbane Roar vs Auckland odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.6%, draw 27.8%, away 39.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.42 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.40 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.85 | 3.38 | 2.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 3.40 | 2.44 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.08 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .