Brisbane Roar
vs
Perth Glory
Garuda Lions Prediction: Brisbane Roar
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory
| Probability | Brisbane Roar | Draw | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.1% | 27.3% | 38.6% |
| Market | 44.5% | 26.7% | 28.8% |
| Final | 41.9% | 26.9% | 31.2% |
| Edge | -10.3% | +0.5% | +9.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory match preview
Brisbane Roar faces Perth Glory in an A-League matchup on October 23, 2026. According to our model, Brisbane Roar has a 41% chance of winning, while Perth Glory has a 32% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Brisbane, occurring with an 8% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Brisbane Roar recording two losses and three draws in their last five matches, while Perth Glory has achieved two wins, three draws, and one loss.
In terms of expected goals, Brisbane Roar is projected to score 1.30, while Perth Glory is expected to net 1.57. Additionally, our model indicates a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability that both teams will score. The last three encounters between these teams have resulted in one win for Brisbane, one draw, and one win for Perth Glory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.86
Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory attack and defence ratings
Brisbane Roar
Perth Glory
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brisbane Roar | 41.9% | 2.39 | -10.3% | 2.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brisbane Roar | 41.9% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Perth Glory | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.0% |
| No | 41.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brisbane Roar win | 16.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 65.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory stats
Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory recent form
| Brisbane Roar |
LLDDLD |
| Perth Glory |
LWDWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Perth Glory | Brisbane Roar | A-League | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Brisbane Roar | Perth Glory | A-League | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Perth Glory | Brisbane Roar | A-League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.6%, draw 26.8%, away 28.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.59 | 3.32 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.46 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .