Melbourne Victory
vs
Melbourne City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Melbourne Victory
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
| Probability | Melbourne Victory | Draw | Melbourne City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.1% | 23.9% | 24.0% |
| Market | 40.6% | 26.3% | 33.1% |
| Final | 43.5% | 25.7% | 30.8% |
| Edge | +11.5% | -2.4% | -9.1% |
Why Melbourne Victory
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.29.
- The market prices Melbourne Victory below the model: +11.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City match preview
Melbourne Victory faces Melbourne City in an A-League clash, with our model giving Melbourne Victory a 44% chance of winning, while Melbourne City stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Melbourne Victory, occurring with a 10% probability. The expected goals for Melbourne Victory are 2.03, compared to 1.23 for Melbourne City, indicating a potentially high-scoring match.
Recent form shows Melbourne Victory with a mixed record of L-W-D-D-L-W, while Melbourne City has been more consistent with L-D-L-W-W-W. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Melbourne Victory has secured 2 wins, while Melbourne City has 1 win. Our model suggests a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score, reflecting an engaging matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City attack and defence ratings
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Melbourne Victory | 43.5% | 2.30 | +11.5% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Melbourne Victory | 43.5% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Melbourne City | 30.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Melbourne Victory win | 30.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 47.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City stats
Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City recent form
| Melbourne Victory |
LLWDDL |
| Melbourne City |
LDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Melbourne City | Melbourne Victory | A-League | 1-3 |
| 2025-12-20 | Melbourne City | Melbourne Victory | A-League | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Melbourne Victory | Melbourne City | A-League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.7%, draw 26.0%, away 33.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.67 | 2.92 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.29 | 3.54 | 2.81 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .