Wellington Phoenix
vs
Central Coast Mariners
Garuda Lions Prediction: Wellington Phoenix
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners
| Probability | Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Central Coast Mariners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.3% | 25.8% | 34.9% |
| Market | 51.7% | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Final | 48.6% | 24.8% | 26.6% |
| Edge | -12.3% | +1.3% | +11.0% |
Why Wellington Phoenix
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners match preview
Wellington Phoenix faces Central Coast Mariners in an A-League matchup with kickoff set for October 25, 2026. Wellington Phoenix has a 49% probability of winning, while Central Coast Mariners stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Wellington Phoenix, with an expected goals tally of 1.62 for them and 1.52 for Central Coast Mariners.
In terms of recent form, Wellington Phoenix has won three of their last six matches, while Central Coast Mariners has drawn three and lost three in the same period. The model indicates a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows Wellington Phoenix with one win and one draw against Central Coast Mariners in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners attack and defence ratings
Wellington Phoenix
Central Coast Mariners
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wellington Phoenix | 48.6% | 2.06 | -12.3% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wellington Phoenix | 48.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Central Coast Mariners | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% |
| No | 36.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wellington Phoenix win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners stats
Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners recent form
| Wellington Phoenix |
WLWLWW |
| Central Coast Mariners |
DLWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | Wellington Phoenix | Central Coast Mariners | A-League | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Central Coast Mariners | Wellington Phoenix | A-League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 24.5%, away 24.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.94 | 4.04 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .