Central Coast Mariners
vs
Newcastle Jets
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newcastle Jets
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets
| Probability | Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.0% | 23.4% | 55.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.0% | 23.4% | 55.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Newcastle Jets
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.18.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets attack and defence ratings
Central Coast Mariners
Newcastle Jets
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle Jets | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Central Coast Mariners | 21.0% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Newcastle Jets | 55.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.1% |
| No | 38.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle Jets win | 33.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 44.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.3% |
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets stats
Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets recent form
| Central Coast Mariners |
LWDLDL |
| Newcastle Jets |
DDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Newcastle Jets | Central Coast Mariners | A-League | 4-0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Central Coast Mariners | Newcastle Jets | A-League | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Central Coast Mariners | Newcastle Jets | A-League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.