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A-League · Full time ·Matchday 1

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets

2 – 2 Full time

11′A. Auglah
34′W. Dobson
42′M. Burgess
42′A. Auglah
49′A. Bolton
49′P. Wood
54′A. BoltonA. De Lima
54′H. EamesJ. Mantell
60′O. Lavale
63′J. RecchiaZ. Clough
63′W. DobsonZ. Schreiber
73′S. RouxT. Mckibbin
74′P. WoodN. Vergos
74′J. LolleyJ. Hill
78′O. Lavale
85′X. BertoncelloE. Debono
86′B. Brandtman
87′A. AuglahL. Becvinovski
87′O. LavaleP. Ortiz

Central Coast Stadium, GosfordReferee: Adam Kersey, Australia

Central Coast Mariners 26%
Draw 23%
Newcastle Jets 51%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 5
41 Possession % 59
2 Corners 9
11 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 2
4 Saves 3
295 Accurate passes 461

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCentral Coast MarinersDrawNewcastle Jets
Model21.3%23.4%55.3%
Market27.1%23.0%49.9%
Final25.6%23.1%51.2%
Edge-1.5%+0.1%+1.4%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Newcastle Jets

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.19.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Central Coast ↓ / Newcastle Jets → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 6% 1 11% 10% 7% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets expected goals

Central Coast Mariners 1.19
Newcastle Jets 2.01

Total expected goals: 3.20

Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets attack and defence ratings

Central Coast Mariners

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Newcastle Jets

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets: result vs prediction

Central Coast Mariners 2 – 2 Newcastle Jets

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

A-League

Before and after this match

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Newcastle Jets 51.2% 1.95 +1.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.0% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.2% 1.63 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.9% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.7% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Central Coast Mariners25.6%
Draw23.1%
Newcastle Jets51.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.0%
Under 2.538.0%
Both teams to scoreYes61.2%
No38.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.8%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)74.4%
Handicap -1Newcastle Jets win33.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss44.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.7%
1-29.8%
0-28.2%

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets stats

Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets recent form

newest first
Central Coast Mariners LWDLDL
Newcastle Jets DDWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Central Coast Mariners wins 2Draws 2Newcastle Jets wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Newcastle JetsCentral Coast MarinersA-League4-0
2026-02-28Central Coast MarinersNewcastle JetsA-League0-0
2025-10-19Central Coast MarinersNewcastle JetsA-League3-2
2025-04-12Newcastle JetsCentral Coast MarinersA-League6-0
2025-02-01Central Coast MarinersNewcastle JetsA-League2-2
2024-11-22Newcastle JetsCentral Coast MarinersA-League1-2
2024-04-27Newcastle JetsCentral Coast MarinersA-League1-3
2024-03-02Newcastle JetsCentral Coast MarinersA-League0-1
2023-11-25Central Coast MarinersNewcastle JetsA-League3-1
2023-04-22Newcastle JetsCentral Coast MarinersA-League1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.1%, draw 22.7%, away 51.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.42 4.20 1.98
Bet365 4.20 4.00 1.75
BetVictor 3.50 4.10 1.85
Betano 4.05 4.10 1.78
Betfair 4.00 4.33 1.73
Dafabet 4.20 4.20 1.79
Marathonbet 3.30 4.05 1.91
Pinnacle 3.60 4.09 1.95
SBO 3.54 3.79 1.72
William Hill 3.30 3.80 1.85

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.46 ▼ -0.42
X 4.07 ▼ -0.13
2 1.88 ▲ +0.13

13 snapshots recorded, from .