Macarthur
vs
Perth Glory
Garuda Lions Prediction: Macarthur
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Macarthur vs Perth Glory overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Macarthur vs Perth Glory
| Probability | Macarthur | Draw | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.3% | 24.0% | 37.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 38.3% | 24.0% | 37.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Macarthur
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Macarthur vs Perth Glory match preview
Macarthur and Perth Glory are set to clash in an A-League match on October 17, 2026. According to our model, both teams have an equal probability of winning at 38%, with a 24% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Macarthur stand at 1.77, while Perth Glory is slightly behind at 1.75. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Macarthur, occurring with an 8% probability.
In terms of recent form, Macarthur has recorded two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Perth Glory has managed two wins, three draws, and one loss. Historical head-to-head results show that Macarthur has not won against Perth Glory in their last three encounters, with two victories for Perth and one draw. Additionally, there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 69%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Macarthur and Perth Glory expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.52
Macarthur and Perth Glory attack and defence ratings
Macarthur
Perth Glory
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Macarthur vs Perth Glory markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macarthur | 38.3% | 2.61 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Macarthur | 38.3% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Perth Glory | 37.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.5% |
| No | 30.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Macarthur win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 61.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Macarthur vs Perth Glory stats
Macarthur and Perth Glory recent form
| Macarthur |
WLLWWL |
| Perth Glory |
WDWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Macarthur vs Perth Glory head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Perth Glory | Macarthur | A-League | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Macarthur | Perth Glory | A-League | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Macarthur | Perth Glory | A-League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.