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A-League · Full time ·Matchday 1

Auckland vs Melbourne City

3 – 1 Full time

32′S. Cosgrove
32′A. Behich
35′L. Bayliss
42′Q. MacNicol
53′L. Bayliss
67′A. NabboutM. Caputo
75′B. KutleshiM. Leckie
75′Q. MacNicolL. Wong
80′L. BaylissV. Fitzharris
85′L. Brook
88′L. BrookI. Prins
88′J. BrimmerD. Normann
88′L. Rogerson
90′S. CosgroveC. Elliot
90′A. Mabil

Go Media Stadium, AucklandReferee: Timothy Danaskos, Australia

Auckland 41%
Draw 28%
Melbourne City 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 5
42 Possession % 58
3 Corners 6
13 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 3
4 Saves 1
230 Accurate passes 357

Auckland vs Melbourne City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Auckland vs Melbourne City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAucklandDrawMelbourne City
Model50.5%26.7%22.8%
Market38.0%28.4%33.6%
Final41.1%28.0%30.9%
Edge+3.1%-0.4%-2.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Auckland

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.05.
  • The market prices Auckland below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Auckland ↓ / Melbourne City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 13% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Auckland and Melbourne City expected goals

Auckland 1.66
Melbourne City 1.05

Total expected goals: 2.71

Auckland and Melbourne City attack and defence ratings

Auckland

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.73 -27%

Melbourne City

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Auckland vs Melbourne City: result vs prediction

Auckland 3 – 1 Melbourne City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

A-League

Before and after this match

Auckland vs Melbourne City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Auckland 41.1% 2.43 +3.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.8% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.7% 1.86 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.0% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.5% 2.02 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Auckland41.1%
Draw28.0%
Melbourne City30.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%
Both teams to scoreYes53.7%
No46.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.1%
12 (either side)72.0%
X2 (draw or away)58.9%
Handicap -1Auckland win27.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.8%
Loss49.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.8%
1-09.9%
2-19.6%

Auckland vs Melbourne City stats

Auckland and Melbourne City recent form

newest first
Auckland WWDDDL
Melbourne City DLWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Auckland vs Melbourne City head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2Auckland wins 2Draws 1Melbourne City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02AucklandMelbourne CityA-League1-1
2026-02-28AucklandMelbourne CityA-League3-0
2026-01-16Melbourne CityAucklandA-League2-1
2025-01-18AucklandMelbourne CityA-League3-0
2024-12-15Melbourne CityAucklandA-League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Auckland vs Melbourne City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.0%, draw 28.4%, away 33.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.53 3.44 2.85
Bet365 2.50 3.25 2.80
BetVictor 2.45 3.30 2.80
Betano 2.57 3.30 2.80
Betfair 2.40 3.40 2.80
Dafabet 2.55 3.35 2.85
Marathonbet 2.44 3.32 2.75
Pinnacle 2.52 3.32 2.94
SBO 2.34 3.05 2.66
William Hill 2.45 3.20 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.48 ▲ +0.08
X 3.31 ▲ +0.04
2 2.80 ▼ -0.08

12 snapshots recorded, from .