Sydney
vs
Western Sydney Wanderers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sydney
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Sydney vs Western Sydney Wanderers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sydney vs Western Sydney Wanderers
| Probability | Sydney | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.1% | 29.1% | 18.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.1% | 29.1% | 18.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Sydney
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Sydney vs Western Sydney Wanderers match preview
Sydney enters this match with a probability of 52% to win, while Western Sydney Wanderers have a 19% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Sydney, with an expected goals tally of 1.46 for Sydney compared to 0.78 for Western Sydney Wanderers. Recent form shows Sydney with a record of L-D-D-W-D-D, while Western Sydney Wanderers have struggled, recording five consecutive losses followed by a draw.
In their last three head-to-head encounters, Sydney has secured two wins, while Western Sydney Wanderers have one victory. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 39%, and both teams to score is at 43%. The confidence grade for this analysis is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sydney and Western Sydney Wanderers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Sydney and Western Sydney Wanderers attack and defence ratings
Sydney
Western Sydney Wanderers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sydney vs Western Sydney Wanderers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sydney | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sydney | 52.1% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 18.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.0% |
| No | 57.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sydney win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 47.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.2% |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Sydney vs Western Sydney Wanderers stats
Sydney and Western Sydney Wanderers recent form
| Sydney |
LDDWDD |
| Western Sydney Wanderers |
LLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sydney vs Western Sydney Wanderers head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Western Sydney Wanderers | Sydney | A-League | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-31 | Sydney | Western Sydney Wanderers | A-League | 4-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Western Sydney Wanderers | Sydney | A-League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.