Sydney
vs
Adelaide United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sydney
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
Sydney vs Adelaide United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sydney vs Adelaide United
| Probability | Sydney | Draw | Adelaide United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.0% | 34.6% | 31.3% |
| Market | 46.1% | 26.1% | 27.8% |
| Final | 43.1% | 28.2% | 28.7% |
| Edge | -12.1% | +8.5% | +3.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sydney vs Adelaide United match preview
Sydney faces Adelaide United in an A-League matchup on October 25, 2026. According to our model, Sydney has a 43% chance of winning, while Adelaide United is at 29%, with a 28% probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Sydney, occurring with a 13% probability. Both teams have shown mixed form recently, with Sydney recording three draws and a win in their last five matches, while Adelaide United has two wins and three draws.
In terms of expected goals, Sydney is projected to score 0.97, and Adelaide United 0.92. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 29%, while the probability of both teams scoring stands at 39%. The recent head-to-head results favor Adelaide United, who have won both of the last two encounters against Sydney.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sydney and Adelaide United expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.89
Sydney and Adelaide United attack and defence ratings
Sydney
Adelaide United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sydney vs Adelaide United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sydney | 43.1% | 2.32 | -12.1% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sydney | 43.1% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Adelaide United | 28.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.7% |
| No | 61.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sydney win | 13.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 66.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.5% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 13.3% |
Sydney vs Adelaide United stats
Sydney and Adelaide United recent form
| Sydney |
DLDDWD |
| Adelaide United |
LDWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sydney vs Adelaide United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Sydney | Adelaide United | A-League | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Adelaide United | Sydney | A-League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sydney vs Adelaide United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 25.9%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.72 | 3.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 3.58 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 3.64 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .