Perth Glory
vs
Adelaide United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Adelaide United
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Adelaide United is the favourite, not a value bet.
Perth Glory vs Adelaide United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
| Probability | Perth Glory | Draw | Adelaide United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.2% | 27.1% | 38.7% |
| Market | 34.2% | 26.5% | 39.4% |
| Final | 34.2% | 26.6% | 39.2% |
| Edge | -0.0% | +0.2% | -0.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (our 39.2% × 2.51 − 1).
Perth Glory vs Adelaide United match preview
Perth Glory faces Adelaide United in their upcoming A-League match, with both teams showing mixed recent form. Perth Glory's last five matches resulted in two wins, two draws, and a loss, while Adelaide United has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five. The probabilities suggest a close contest, with Perth Glory at 36%, a draw at 27%, and Adelaide United slightly favored at 38%.
The expected goals indicate a competitive match, with Perth Glory projected at 1.39 and Adelaide United at 1.50. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 9% chance of this outcome. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score, highlighting potential offensive action from both sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Perth Glory and Adelaide United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Perth Glory and Adelaide United attack and defence ratings
Perth Glory
Adelaide United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Perth Glory vs Adelaide United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Adelaide United | 39.2% | 2.55 | -0.2% | 2.51 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Perth Glory | 34.2% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Adelaide United | 39.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Adelaide United win | 19.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Perth Glory vs Adelaide United stats
Perth Glory and Adelaide United recent form
| Perth Glory |
LLWDWD |
| Adelaide United |
LLDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Perth Glory vs Adelaide United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Adelaide United | Perth Glory | A-League | 4-0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Perth Glory | Adelaide United | A-League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Perth Glory vs Adelaide United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 26.5%, away 39.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.67 | 2.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.64 | 3.54 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 3.54 | 2.38 |
| SBO | 2.69 | 3.28 | 2.21 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .