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A-League · Full time ·Matchday 4

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets

2 – 1 Full time

HBF Park, PerthReferee: S. Kelly

Perth Glory 41%
Draw 25%
Newcastle Jets 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPerth GloryDrawNewcastle Jets
Model46.1%25.8%28.1%
Market39.8%24.4%35.8%
Final41.3%24.8%33.9%
Edge+1.6%+0.4%-1.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Perth Glory

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.30.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Perth Glory ↓ / Newcastle Jets → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 12% 7% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets expected goals

Perth Glory 1.72
Newcastle Jets 1.30

Total expected goals: 3.02

Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets attack and defence ratings

Perth Glory

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Newcastle Jets

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets: result vs prediction

Perth Glory 2 – 1 Newcastle Jets

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

A-League

Before and after this match

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Perth Glory 41.3% 2.42 +1.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.1% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.8% 1.64 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.8% 1.86 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Perth Glory41.3%
Draw24.8%
Newcastle Jets33.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%
Both teams to scoreYes60.8%
No39.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.1%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)58.7%
Handicap -1Perth Glory win25.3%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss53.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.0%
2-19.4%
1-07.3%

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets stats

Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets recent form

newest first
Perth Glory WLLWDW
Newcastle Jets LDDDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Perth Glory wins 5Draws 3Newcastle Jets wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-13Perth GloryNewcastle JetsA-League1-3
2025-11-23Newcastle JetsPerth GloryA-League1-2
2025-01-25Newcastle JetsPerth GloryA-League2-2
2024-12-14Perth GloryNewcastle JetsA-League0-4
2024-10-02Perth GloryNewcastle JetsFriendlies Clubs2-0
2024-09-29Perth GloryNewcastle JetsFriendlies Clubs2-3
2024-03-09Perth GloryNewcastle JetsA-League2-2
2023-12-16Newcastle JetsPerth GloryA-League2-2
2023-10-22Perth GloryNewcastle JetsA-League2-2
2023-03-18Newcastle JetsPerth GloryA-League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.9%, draw 24.3%, away 35.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.50 3.88 2.64
Bet365 2.30 4.00 2.60
BetVictor 2.40 3.80 2.55
Betano 2.32 3.95 2.72
Betfair 2.30 4.00 2.75
Dafabet 2.39 3.95 2.70
Marathonbet 2.29 3.80 2.66
Pinnacle 2.38 4.11 2.72
SBO 2.45 3.50 2.53
William Hill 2.38 3.70 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.38 ▼ -0.46
X 3.88 ▲ +0.15
2 2.64 ▲ +0.39

18 snapshots recorded, from .