Newcastle Jets
vs
Wellington Phoenix
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newcastle Jets
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Newcastle Jets is the favourite, not a value bet.
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
| Probability | Newcastle Jets | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.6% | 24.9% | 21.5% |
| Market | 47.9% | 24.2% | 27.9% |
| Final | 49.3% | 24.4% | 26.3% |
| Edge | +1.4% | +0.2% | -1.6% |
Why Newcastle Jets
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.10.
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.4% per unit staked (our 49.3% × 2.02 − 1).
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix match preview
Newcastle Jets face Wellington Phoenix in an A-League matchup with a predicted probability of 50% for a Newcastle victory, 24% for a draw, and 26% for a Wellington win. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Newcastle, supported by expected goals of 1.98 for Newcastle and 1.05 for Wellington. Both teams have shown contrasting recent form, with Newcastle Jets recording four draws and a win in their last six matches, while Wellington Phoenix has alternated between wins and losses, securing three victories in their last six outings.
Historically, Newcastle Jets have had the upper hand in their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Wellington Phoenix without any draws. The model indicates a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix attack and defence ratings
Newcastle Jets
Wellington Phoenix
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle Jets | 49.3% | 2.03 | +1.4% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.4% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle Jets | 49.3% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Wellington Phoenix | 26.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% |
| No | 42.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle Jets win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 46.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix stats
Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix recent form
| Newcastle Jets |
DDDDWD |
| Wellington Phoenix |
WWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Newcastle Jets | Wellington Phoenix | A-League | 4-1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Wellington Phoenix | Newcastle Jets | A-League | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.9%, draw 24.2%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 4.00 | 3.54 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.90 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.86 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.54 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.39 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .