Garuda Lions
Today
A-League · ·Matchday 3

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers

Garuda Lions Prediction: Macarthur

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.66.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Macarthur

Campbelltown Stadium, Sydney

Macarthur 42%
Draw 24%
Western Sydney Wanderers 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Macarthur wins
42%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
73%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMacarthurDrawWestern Sydney Wanderers
Model50.4%21.7%27.9%
Market38.9%25.4%35.6%
Final41.8%24.5%33.7%
Edge+2.9%-0.9%-1.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Macarthur

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 1.66.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Macarthur below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.9% per unit staked (our 41.8% × 2.46 − 1).

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers match preview

Macarthur will face Western Sydney Wanderers in an intriguing A-League matchup. According to our model, Macarthur has a 42% chance of winning, while the Wanderers have a 33% probability of securing victory, with a 25% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Macarthur stand at 2.23, compared to 1.66 for the Wanderers, indicating a potentially high-scoring encounter. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Macarthur, with a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% probability that both teams will score.

Recent form shows Macarthur with two wins in their last six matches, while the Western Sydney Wanderers have struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings. In their last three encounters, the teams have each secured one win, with one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting moderate certainty in the forecasted outcomes.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Macarthur ↓ / Western Sydney → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 6% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 91%
3+ goals 75%
No goals 3%

Macarthur and Western Sydney Wanderers expected goals

Macarthur 2.24
Western Sydney Wanderers 1.66

Total expected goals: 3.90

Macarthur and Western Sydney Wanderers attack and defence ratings

Macarthur

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Western Sydney Wanderers

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

A-League

Before and after this match

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Macarthur 41.8% 2.39 +2.9% 2.46
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.6% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score Yes 73.1% 1.37 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.5% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.6% 2.02 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Macarthur41.8%
Draw24.5%
Western Sydney Wanderers33.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.6%
Under 2.525.4%
Both teams to scoreYes73.1%
No26.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.3%
12 (either side)75.5%
X2 (draw or away)58.2%
Handicap -1Macarthur win31.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.4%
Loss49.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.4%
1-18.3%
2-27.0%
Compare prices for this pick

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers stats

Macarthur and Western Sydney Wanderers recent form

newest first
Macarthur DWWLLW
Western Sydney Wanderers WDLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

1Macarthur wins 1Draws 1Western Sydney Wanderers wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-28MacarthurWestern Sydney WanderersA-League0-4
2026-01-01Western Sydney WanderersMacarthurA-League0-1
2025-11-01MacarthurWestern Sydney WanderersA-League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Macarthur vs Western Sydney Wanderers odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 25.4%, away 35.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.46 3.80 2.72
Bet365 2.45 3.70 2.60
BetVictor 2.45 3.70 2.60
Betano 2.42 3.70 2.75
Betfair 2.38 3.75 2.70
Dafabet 2.41 3.70 2.75
Marathonbet 2.38 3.66 2.62
Pinnacle 2.46 3.75 2.66
SBO 2.35 3.33 2.47
William Hill 2.38 3.50 2.62
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.42 ▲ +0.12
X 3.70 ▼ -0.02
2 2.64 ▼ -0.11

8 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Macarthur Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now