Melbourne City
vs
Western Sydney Wanderers
2 – 1 Full time
Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers
| Probability | Melbourne City | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.5% | 24.8% | 23.7% |
| Market | 43.7% | 26.1% | 30.2% |
| Final | 45.7% | 25.8% | 28.6% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -0.3% | -1.6% |
Why Melbourne City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Melbourne City and Western Sydney Wanderers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Melbourne City and Western Sydney Wanderers attack and defence ratings
Melbourne City
Western Sydney Wanderers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers: result vs prediction
Melbourne City 2 – 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Melbourne City | 45.7% | 2.19 | +1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Melbourne City | 45.7% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% |
| No | 39.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Melbourne City win | 29.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers stats
Melbourne City and Western Sydney Wanderers recent form
| Melbourne City |
WDLDLW |
| Western Sydney Wanderers |
DWDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Melbourne City | Western Sydney Wanderers | A-League | 3-0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne City | A-League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne City | A-League | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne City | A-League | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-30 | Melbourne City | Western Sydney Wanderers | A-League | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-20 | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne City | A-League | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-12 | Melbourne City | Western Sydney Wanderers | A-League | 7-0 |
| 2024-01-12 | Melbourne City | Western Sydney Wanderers | A-League | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-28 | Melbourne City | Western Sydney Wanderers | A-League | 3-2 |
| 2023-01-15 | Western Sydney Wanderers | Melbourne City | A-League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Melbourne City vs Western Sydney Wanderers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 26.1%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.22 | 3.68 | 3.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.70 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.55 | 3.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 3.76 | 3.29 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .