Newcastle Jets
vs
Macarthur
Garuda Lions Prediction: Newcastle Jets
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur
| Probability | Newcastle Jets | Draw | Macarthur |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.5% | 20.6% | 21.8% |
| Market | 46.8% | 24.0% | 29.2% |
| Final | 49.5% | 23.1% | 27.3% |
| Edge | +10.7% | -3.4% | -7.3% |
Why Newcastle Jets
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.46.
- The market prices Newcastle Jets below the model: +10.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur match preview
Newcastle Jets face Macarthur in their upcoming A-League match, with Newcastle Jets holding a 50% probability of winning compared to Macarthur's 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with over 2.5 goals expected at 73% and both teams scoring at 69%.
In terms of recent form, Newcastle Jets have drawn their last two matches and recorded one win in their last six games, while Macarthur has shown stronger performance with three wins in their last six matches. Head-to-head results favor Macarthur, who has won two of the last three encounters, while Newcastle Jets have secured one victory. Expected goals indicate Newcastle Jets at 2.44 and Macarthur at 1.37.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Newcastle Jets and Macarthur expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.85
Newcastle Jets and Macarthur attack and defence ratings
Newcastle Jets
Macarthur
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle Jets | 49.5% | 2.02 | +10.7% | 2.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.5% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle Jets | 49.5% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Macarthur | 27.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.5% |
| No | 29.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle Jets win | 37.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 42.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.1% |
Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur stats
Newcastle Jets and Macarthur recent form
| Newcastle Jets |
DDDWDD |
| Macarthur |
WWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Macarthur | Newcastle Jets | A-League | 3-2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Newcastle Jets | Macarthur | A-League | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Newcastle Jets | Macarthur | A-League | 4-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 23.9%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.08 | 3.94 | 3.32 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.07 | 3.91 | 3.22 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .