Wellington Phoenix
vs
Melbourne Victory
2 – 1 Full time
| 14′ | C. Piper | ||
| 24′ | C. Nduka | ||
| 28′ | R. DuranN. Walker | ||
| 45′ | P. Ziereis | ||
| 62′ | ClarismarioK. Jelacic | ||
| 62′ | P. ZiereisT. Lockyer | ||
| 62′ | J. McGarryW. Scott | ||
| 71′ | D. Genreau | ||
| 74′ | G. MayX. Stella | ||
| 74′ | M. GrimaldiM. Ghossaini | ||
| 77′ | L. MitchellR. Bidois | ||
| 77′ | R. Bidois | ||
| 87′ | C. NdukaB. Hamill |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 234 | Accurate passes | 448 |
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
| Probability | Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.2% | 23.8% | 56.0% |
| Market | 30.3% | 25.3% | 44.4% |
| Final | 27.7% | 25.0% | 47.3% |
| Edge | -10.1% | -1.5% | +11.6% |
Why Melbourne Victory
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.11.
- The market prices Melbourne Victory below the model: +11.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory attack and defence ratings
Wellington Phoenix
Melbourne Victory
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory: result vs prediction
Wellington Phoenix 2 – 1 Melbourne Victory
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Melbourne Victory | 47.3% | 2.11 | +11.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.0% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wellington Phoenix | 27.7% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Melbourne Victory | 47.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Melbourne Victory win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 44.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 8.9% |
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory stats
Wellington Phoenix and Melbourne Victory recent form
| Wellington Phoenix |
LWLWWW |
| Melbourne Victory |
LWDDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Melbourne Victory | Wellington Phoenix | A-League | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne Victory | A-League | 2-3 |
| 2025-12-29 | Melbourne Victory | Wellington Phoenix | A-League | 5-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne Victory | A-League | 2-3 |
| 2025-02-14 | Melbourne Victory | Wellington Phoenix | A-League | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-24 | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne Victory | A-League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-18 | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne Victory | A-League | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-12 | Melbourne Victory | Wellington Phoenix | A-League | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-12 | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne Victory | A-League | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-19 | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne Victory | A-League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.2%, draw 25.3%, away 44.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.09 | 3.84 | 2.21 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.98 | 3.70 | 2.13 |
| Pinnacle | 3.24 | 3.87 | 2.12 |
| SBO | 2.85 | 3.30 | 2.09 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .