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2. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 6

Austria Salzburg vs Sturm Graz II

3 – 3 Full time

5′C. Gebauer
34′J. Halwachs
38′E. Roche
40′T. RohrmoserD. Kahrimanovic
45′J. Peinhart
45′L. Morgenstern
45′S. Nesler-Taubl
46′W. LazarreG. Haider
63′J. Peinhart
67′K. Nnamdi
68′T. SchandlN. Lukasser Weitlaner
71′C. Huetz
71′J. LockerJ. Petritsch
77′J. HalwachsM. Grgic
79′N. Lang
87′C. Huetz
88′S. SpitaliL. Schweighofer
90′M. Grgic
90′J. Petritsch
90′E. Lorenz
90′J. PeinhartJ. Ploner
90′M. Eder
90′M. Eder

Max-Aicher-Stadion, SalzburgReferee: M. Gachter

Austria Salzburg 51%
Draw 24%
Sturm Graz II 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Austria Salzburg vs Sturm Graz II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Austria Salzburg vs Sturm Graz II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAustria SalzburgDrawSturm Graz II
Model55.5%21.1%23.4%
Market49.0%24.6%26.3%
Final50.7%23.7%25.6%
Edge+6.4%-3.5%-2.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Austria Salzburg

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.50.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Austria Salzburg below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Austria Salzbu ↓ / Sturm Graz II → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 5% 7% 5% 4+ 5% 7% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

Austria Salzburg and Sturm Graz II expected goals

Austria Salzburg 2.34
Sturm Graz II 1.50

Total expected goals: 3.84

Austria Salzburg and Sturm Graz II attack and defence ratings

Austria Salzburg

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Sturm Graz II

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.38 +38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Austria Salzburg vs Sturm Graz II: result vs prediction

Austria Salzburg 3 – 3 Sturm Graz II

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

2. Liga

Before and after this match

Austria Salzburg vs Sturm Graz II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Austria Salzburg 50.7% 1.97 +6.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.8% 1.36 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.0% 1.41 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.3% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.5% 2.25 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Austria Salzburg50.7%
Draw23.7%
Sturm Graz II25.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.8%
Under 2.526.2%
Both teams to scoreYes71.0%
No29.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.4%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)49.3%
Handicap -1Austria Salzburg win35.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss44.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.8%
1-18.3%
3-16.9%

Austria Salzburg vs Sturm Graz II stats

Austria Salzburg and Sturm Graz II recent form

newest first
Austria Salzburg LLWLWW
Sturm Graz II WLLWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Austria Salzburg and Sturm Graz II going into this match

league record before kick-off

Austria Salzburg record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sturm Graz II record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

Austria Salzburg vs Sturm Graz II head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Austria Salzburg wins 0Draws 1Sturm Graz II wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02Sturm Graz IIAustria Salzburg2. Liga0-2
2025-11-08Austria SalzburgSturm Graz II2. Liga1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Austria Salzburg vs Sturm Graz II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.0%, draw 24.6%, away 26.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.89 3.80 3.56
Bet365 1.90 3.70 3.30
BetVictor 1.90 3.70 3.40
Betano 1.90 3.75 3.50
Betfair 1.80 3.80 3.60
Marathonbet 1.87 3.80 3.56
Pinnacle 1.93 3.84 3.68
SBO 1.79 3.52 3.49

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.