Garuda Lions
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2. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II

5 – 2 Full time

Solarstadion Gleisdorf, GleisdorfReferee: P. Gadler

Sturm Graz II 33%
Draw 25%
Rapid Wien II 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySturm Graz IIDrawRapid Wien II
Model28.9%27.2%43.9%
Market34.9%24.8%40.3%
Final33.4%25.4%41.2%
Edge-6.0%+2.4%+3.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Rapid Wien II

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.24.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Rapid Wien II below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sturm Graz II ↓ / Rapid Wien II → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 7% 1 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Sturm Graz II and Rapid Wien II expected goals

Sturm Graz II 1.24
Rapid Wien II 1.57

Total expected goals: 2.81

Sturm Graz II and Rapid Wien II attack and defence ratings

Sturm Graz II

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.37 +37%

Rapid Wien II

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II: result vs prediction

Sturm Graz II 5 – 2 Rapid Wien II

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

2. Liga

Before and after this match

Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rapid Wien II 41.2% 2.43 +3.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.2% 1.88 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.4% 1.74 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.6% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.3% 1.78 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sturm Graz II33.4%
Draw25.4%
Rapid Wien II41.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.2%
Under 2.546.8%
Both teams to scoreYes57.4%
No42.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.8%
12 (either side)74.6%
X2 (draw or away)66.6%
Handicap -1Rapid Wien II win22.7%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss56.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
1-29.2%
0-18.3%

Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II stats

Sturm Graz II and Rapid Wien II recent form

newest first
Sturm Graz II LLWLLL
Rapid Wien II LWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sturm Graz II and Rapid Wien II going into this match

league record before kick-off

Sturm Graz II record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

Rapid Wien II record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Sturm Graz II wins 1Draws 1Rapid Wien II wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-14Sturm Graz IIRapid Wien II2. Liga1-2
2025-11-29Rapid Wien IISturm Graz II2. Liga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sturm Graz II vs Rapid Wien II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 24.8%, away 40.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.65 3.55 2.33
1xBet 2.66 3.75 2.29
Betano 2.65 3.65 2.35
Betfair 2.60 3.75 2.20
Dafabet 2.60 3.70 2.35
Marathonbet 2.66 3.75 2.29
Pinnacle 2.75 3.75 2.29
William Hill 2.50 3.40 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.65 ▲ +0.06
X 3.73 —
2 2.29 ▼ -0.06

10 snapshots recorded, from .