Garuda Lions
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2. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

SV Kapfenberg vs FC BW Linz

2 – 1 Full time

Alpenstadion, KapfenbergReferee: I. Simsek

SV Kapfenberg 12%
Draw 17%
FC BW Linz 71%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

SV Kapfenberg vs FC BW Linz overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SV Kapfenberg vs FC BW Linz

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySV KapfenbergDrawFC BW Linz
Model9.9%16.0%74.2%
Market12.3%18.0%69.7%
Final11.7%17.5%70.8%
Edge-2.5%-2.0%+4.5%

Confidence: Low

Why FC BW Linz

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC BW Linz below the model: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SV Kapfenberg ↓ / FC BW Linz → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 9% 8% 11% 1 7% 9% 8% 11% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

SV Kapfenberg and FC BW Linz expected goals

SV Kapfenberg 0.96
FC BW Linz 2.75

Total expected goals: 3.71

SV Kapfenberg and FC BW Linz attack and defence ratings

SV Kapfenberg

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.41 +41%

FC BW Linz

Attack 1.52 +52%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SV Kapfenberg vs FC BW Linz: result vs prediction

SV Kapfenberg 2 – 1 FC BW Linz

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

2. Liga

Before and after this match

SV Kapfenberg vs FC BW Linz markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC BW Linz 70.8% 1.41 +4.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.6% 1.40 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.4% 1.71 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 88.3% 1.13 — —
Handicap -1 FC BW Linz win 54.3% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SV Kapfenberg11.7%
Draw17.5%
FC BW Linz70.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.6%
Under 2.528.4%
Both teams to scoreYes58.4%
No41.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)29.2%
12 (either side)82.5%
X2 (draw or away)88.3%
Handicap -1FC BW Linz win54.3%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss25.8%
Correct score (top 3)0-29.3%
1-28.9%
0-38.5%

SV Kapfenberg vs FC BW Linz stats

SV Kapfenberg and FC BW Linz recent form

newest first
SV Kapfenberg LLLLWW
FC BW Linz WWWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SV Kapfenberg and FC BW Linz going into this match

league record before kick-off

SV Kapfenberg record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

FC BW Linz record

  • They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

SV Kapfenberg vs FC BW Linz head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2SV Kapfenberg wins 4Draws 4FC BW Linz wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-03-04FC BW LinzSV Kapfenberg2. Liga2-0
2022-10-22SV KapfenbergFC BW Linz2. Liga2-4
2022-05-22SV KapfenbergFC BW Linz2. Liga0-0
2021-11-20FC BW LinzSV Kapfenberg2. Liga2-2
2021-03-12FC BW LinzSV Kapfenberg2. Liga3-0
2020-12-15SV KapfenbergFC BW LinzCup2-0
2020-09-25SV KapfenbergFC BW Linz2. Liga2-4
2020-08-22SV KapfenbergFC BW LinzFriendlies Clubs1-0
2020-02-21SV KapfenbergFC BW Linz2. Liga1-1
2019-07-26FC BW LinzSV Kapfenberg2. Liga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SV Kapfenberg vs FC BW Linz odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 12.3%, draw 18.0%, away 69.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 8.60 4.80 1.30
1xBet 7.60 5.25 1.33
Bet365 7.50 5.25 1.33
BetVictor 8.00 5.00 1.30
Betano 7.00 5.10 1.35
Betfair 8.00 5.00 1.29
Dafabet 7.40 5.40 1.34
Marathonbet 7.60 5.25 1.32
Pinnacle 7.28 5.51 1.32
SBO 6.28 4.68 1.30
Superbet 7.00 5.15 1.33
William Hill 7.00 4.80 1.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 7.45 ▲ +0.04
X 5.12 ▼ -0.03
2 1.32 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .