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Austria Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

SV Kapfenberg vs WSPG Wels

0 – 1 Full time

46′M. BruggerT. Sahin
53′T. Sahin
62′H. HrustanE. Ojukwu
62′M. PranjkovicJ. Rostas
68′S. Feyrer
70′N. Keckeisen
70′N. KeckeisenL. Tischler
70′Y. MankanN. Zotz
70′L. CocoN. R. Dubov
78′A. MarinovicA. Sokcevic
82′C. Wernitznig
89′N. Freund
90′T. Sahin
90′M. Miskovic

Alpenstadion, Kapfenberg

SV Kapfenberg 31%
Draw 25%
WSPG Wels 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

SV Kapfenberg vs WSPG Wels overview

Garuda Lions analysis: SV Kapfenberg vs WSPG Wels

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySV KapfenbergDrawWSPG Wels
Model10.8%19.3%69.9%
Market37.6%26.3%36.1%
Final30.9%24.6%44.5%
Edge-26.7%-7.0%+33.8%

Confidence: Low

Why WSPG Wels

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 0.81.
  • The market prices WSPG Wels below the model: +33.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

SV Kapfenberg ↓ / WSPG Wels → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 12% 9% 9% 1 9% 10% 7% 7% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 60%
No goals 5%

SV Kapfenberg and WSPG Wels expected goals

SV Kapfenberg 0.81
WSPG Wels 2.29

Total expected goals: 3.10

SV Kapfenberg and WSPG Wels attack and defence ratings

SV Kapfenberg

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 1.03 +3%

WSPG Wels

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

SV Kapfenberg vs WSPG Wels: result vs prediction

SV Kapfenberg 0 – 1 WSPG Wels

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Austria Cup

Before and after this match

SV Kapfenberg vs WSPG Wels markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 WSPG Wels 44.5% 2.25 +33.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 59.9% 1.67 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.8% 1.97 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 WSPG Wels win 47.3% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2SV Kapfenberg30.9%
Draw24.6%
WSPG Wels44.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559.9%
Under 2.540.1%
Both teams to scoreYes50.8%
No49.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.5%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)69.1%
Handicap -1WSPG Wels win47.3%
Push (exactly one goal)22.5%
Loss30.1%
Correct score (top 3)0-211.8%
1-29.6%
0-19.5%

SV Kapfenberg vs WSPG Wels stats

SV Kapfenberg and WSPG Wels recent form

newest first
SV Kapfenberg WLLLLW
WSPG Wels LDLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

SV Kapfenberg vs WSPG Wels head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1SV Kapfenberg wins 0Draws 1WSPG Wels wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-13WSPG WelsSV Kapfenberg2. Liga3-1
2025-09-12SV KapfenbergWSPG Wels2. Liga3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

SV Kapfenberg vs WSPG Wels odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 26.3%, away 36.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.45 3.42 2.44
Bet365 2.30 3.50 2.80
BetVictor 2.25 3.20 2.30
Betano 2.42 3.50 2.62
Betfair 2.30 3.60 2.55
Dafabet 2.43 3.55 2.65
Marathonbet 2.45 3.40 2.45
Pinnacle 2.48 3.54 2.46
Superbet 2.37 3.20 2.95
William Hill 2.45 3.25 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.42 ▲ +0.08
X 3.46 ▲ +0.29
2 2.52 ▼ -0.37

5 snapshots recorded, from .