Velež
vs
FK Sarajevo
1 – 0 Full time
| 46′ | A. BajricS. Duranovic | ||
| 58′ | M. Rahimic | ||
| 60′ | F. ZivkovicA. Elezi | ||
| 60′ | B. BarisicR. Caraballo | ||
| 60′ | G. CimirotS. Ignatkov | ||
| 64′ | S. Meite | ||
| 71′ | F. KosiM. Kupresak | ||
| 76′ | I. SaricL. Mikic | ||
| 83′ | D. SalcinA. Besagic | ||
| 90′ | A. NukicD. Halilovic |
Velež vs FK Sarajevo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Velež vs FK Sarajevo
| Probability | Velež | Draw | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.6% | 30.1% | 43.3% |
| Market | 28.2% | 31.0% | 40.8% |
| Final | 27.8% | 30.8% | 41.4% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -0.9% | +2.5% |
Why FK Sarajevo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FK Sarajevo below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Velež and FK Sarajevo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Velež and FK Sarajevo attack and defence ratings
Velež
FK Sarajevo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Velež vs FK Sarajevo: result vs prediction
Velež 1 – 0 FK Sarajevo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Velež vs FK Sarajevo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Sarajevo | 41.4% | 2.41 | +2.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velež | 27.8% |
| Draw | 30.8% | |
| FK Sarajevo | 41.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Sarajevo win | 20.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 56.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Velež vs FK Sarajevo stats
Velež and FK Sarajevo recent form
| Velež |
LDLWLL |
| FK Sarajevo |
LWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Velež and FK Sarajevo going into this match
Velež record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
FK Sarajevo record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Velež vs FK Sarajevo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | Velež | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 2-3 |
| 2026-03-22 | FK Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Velež | FK Sarajevo | Cup | 4-1 |
| 2026-02-25 | FK Sarajevo | Velež | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-02 | Velež | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | FK Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-18 | Velež | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-08 | Velež | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-19 | FK Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 4-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | FK Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Velež vs FK Sarajevo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.2%, draw 31.0%, away 40.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.27 | 2.91 | 2.22 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 3.20 | 2.91 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 3.28 | 2.94 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 3.25 | 2.75 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .