Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
vs
Velež
3 – 1 Full time
| 7′ | Y. Dabo | ||
| 20′ | E. Dragovic | ||
| 28′ | A. Pejic | ||
| 46′ | B. NasticM. Sosic | ||
| 46′ | E. DragovicJ. Freeman | ||
| 46′ | A. NukicV. Abidovic | ||
| 59′ | N. Stojanovic | ||
| 63′ | A. KororaM. Huskovic | ||
| 68′ | D. MilosevicS. Radovac | ||
| 78′ | M. KaramarkoG. Troupee | ||
| 80′ | A. BesagicC. Matekovic | ||
| 84′ | D. SalcinD. Halilovic | ||
| 84′ | M. RahimicK. Djuliman | ||
| 86′ | G. Cunha |
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež
| Probability | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Draw | Velež |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 28.8% | 17.8% |
| Market | 42.1% | 27.8% | 30.2% |
| Final | 44.9% | 28.0% | 27.1% |
| Edge | +11.3% | +1.1% | -12.4% |
Why Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.75.
- The market prices Zeljeznicar Sarajevo below the model: +11.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Velež expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Velež attack and defence ratings
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Velež
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež: result vs prediction
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3 – 1 Velež
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 44.9% | 2.23 | +11.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 44.9% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Velež | 27.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.0% |
| No | 58.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.7% |
| 1-1 | 13.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.9% |
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež stats
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Velež recent form
| Zeljeznicar Sarajevo |
LDLWLD |
| Velež |
DLWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Velež going into this match
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Velež record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Velež | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-15 | Velež | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-10 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-10 | Velež | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-29 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-08 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Velež | Premijer Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-03 | Velež | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.1%, draw 27.8%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.26 | 3.03 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 2.90 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.26 | 2.97 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.38 | 3.03 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .