Velež
vs
Sloga Doboj
2 – 0 Full time
Velež vs Sloga Doboj overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Velež vs Sloga Doboj
| Probability | Velež | Draw | Sloga Doboj |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 32.9% | 19.3% |
| Market | 38.0% | 30.8% | 31.2% |
| Final | 40.5% | 31.3% | 28.2% |
| Edge | +9.7% | +2.1% | -11.9% |
Why Velež
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.11 vs 0.75.
- The market prices Velež below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Velež and Sloga Doboj expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.86
Velež and Sloga Doboj attack and defence ratings
Velež
Sloga Doboj
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Velež vs Sloga Doboj: result vs prediction
Velež 2 – 0 Sloga Doboj
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Velež vs Sloga Doboj markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velež | 40.5% | 2.47 | +9.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velež | 40.5% |
| Draw | 31.3% | |
| Sloga Doboj | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.4% |
| No | 64.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Velež win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 57.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 17.3% |
| 0-0 | 16.6% | |
| 1-1 | 13.6% |
Velež vs Sloga Doboj stats
Velež and Sloga Doboj recent form
| Velež |
LLLLWD |
| Sloga Doboj |
DWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Velež and Sloga Doboj going into this match
Velež record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Velež vs Sloga Doboj head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Velež | Sloga Doboj | Premijer Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Sloga Doboj | Velež | Premijer Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Velež | Sloga Doboj | Premijer Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Sloga Doboj | Velež | Premijer Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Velež vs Sloga Doboj odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.0%, draw 30.8%, away 31.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 2.94 | 2.94 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 2.63 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 2.95 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.36 | 2.94 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.39 | 3.04 | 2.90 |
| Superbet | 2.37 | 2.87 | 2.95 |
| Unibet | 2.25 | 2.95 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 2.80 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .