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Premijer Liga · Full time ·Matchday 8

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik

1 – 1 Full time

20′S. RadovacD. Milosevic
39′A. Hrvanovic
53′B. NasticJ. Freeman
54′R. PilotoM. Huskovic
58′O. Sarkic
64′E. DragovicA. Korora
64′G. CunhaA. Gojak
76′N. SmajlovicM. Popovic
80′A. Pejic
83′F. Gogic
83′A. MasicD. Vidic
88′A. MohedanoH. Vardo
88′H. SabanovicE. Sivac

Stadion Grbavica, SarajevoReferee: M. Kazlagic

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 47%
Draw 28%
Čelik 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityZeljeznicar SarajevoDrawČelik
Model52.5%25.9%21.6%
Market45.0%29.2%25.7%
Final46.9%28.4%24.7%
Edge+7.5%-3.3%-4.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.04.
  • The market prices Zeljeznicar Sarajevo below the model: +7.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Zeljeznicar Sa ↓ / Čelik → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 12% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Čelik expected goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.74
Čelik 1.04

Total expected goals: 2.78

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Čelik attack and defence ratings

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Čelik

Attack 1.24 +24%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik: result vs prediction

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1 – 1 Čelik

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Premijer Liga

Before and after this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 46.9% 2.13 +7.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.7% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.6% 1.83 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.3% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.5% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Zeljeznicar Sarajevo46.9%
Draw28.4%
Čelik24.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%
Both teams to scoreYes54.6%
No45.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.3%
12 (either side)71.6%
X2 (draw or away)53.1%
Handicap -1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo win29.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.8%
Loss47.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.3%
2-19.8%
1-09.6%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik stats

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Čelik recent form

newest first
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo DWWLDL
Čelik WLDWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Čelik going into this match

league record before kick-off

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Čelik record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

6Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins 1Draws 2Čelik wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2019-11-03Zeljeznicar SarajevoČelikPremijer Liga3-0
2019-08-10ČelikZeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga0-2
2019-05-18Zeljeznicar SarajevoČelikPremijer Liga1-2
2018-10-05Zeljeznicar SarajevoČelikPremijer Liga3-2
2018-07-29ČelikZeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga1-0
2018-03-07Zeljeznicar SarajevoČelikPremijer Liga3-1
2017-10-15ČelikZeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga0-3
2016-12-03Zeljeznicar SarajevoČelikPremijer Liga1-0
2016-08-27ČelikZeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.0%, draw 29.2%, away 25.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.00 3.06 3.59
Bet365 1.95 3.20 3.40
BetVictor 1.90 2.88 3.10
Betano 2.07 3.10 3.50
Betfair 2.00 3.25 3.40
Marathonbet 1.98 3.06 3.50
Pinnacle 2.04 3.11 3.57
William Hill 2.05 2.90 3.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▲ +0.13
X 3.08 ▼ -0.17
2 3.50 ▼ -0.25

5 snapshots recorded, from .