Čelik
vs
FK Sarajevo
Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Sarajevo
0 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Čelik vs FK Sarajevo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Čelik vs FK Sarajevo
| Probability | Čelik | Draw | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.4% | 30.2% | 27.4% |
| Market | 26.3% | 29.2% | 44.5% |
| Final | 30.3% | 29.4% | 40.3% |
| Edge | +16.1% | +1.0% | -17.1% |
Why FK Sarajevo
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Čelik vs FK Sarajevo match preview
In the upcoming match between Čelik and FK Sarajevo, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Čelik at 31% to win, a draw at 29%, and FK Sarajevo favored at 40%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Čelik may score 1.33 while FK Sarajevo is projected at 1.02, hinting at a tight match.
Recent form shows Čelik with a mixed record of D-W-L-D-W-L, while FK Sarajevo has experienced a series of results with W-L-L-W-W-L. Historically, FK Sarajevo has dominated their last ten meetings, winning seven times, with Čelik yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Čelik and FK Sarajevo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Čelik and FK Sarajevo attack and defence ratings
Čelik
FK Sarajevo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Čelik vs FK Sarajevo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Sarajevo | 40.3% | 2.48 | -17.1% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Čelik | 30.3% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| FK Sarajevo | 40.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.3% |
| No | 51.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Sarajevo win | 10.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.7% | |
| Loss | 72.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Čelik vs FK Sarajevo stats
Čelik and FK Sarajevo recent form
| Čelik |
DWLDWL |
| FK Sarajevo |
WLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Čelik and FK Sarajevo season so far
Čelik record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Sarajevo record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Čelik vs FK Sarajevo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Čelik | FK Sarajevo | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2022-10-19 | Čelik | FK Sarajevo | Cup | 1-1 |
| 2019-10-18 | FK Sarajevo | Čelik | Premijer Liga | 2-0 |
| 2019-07-28 | Čelik | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 0-0 |
| 2019-05-03 | FK Sarajevo | Čelik | Premijer Liga | 5-0 |
| 2018-12-01 | FK Sarajevo | Čelik | Premijer Liga | 3-1 |
| 2018-09-01 | Čelik | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 0-0 |
| 2017-10-29 | FK Sarajevo | Čelik | Premijer Liga | 5-0 |
| 2017-07-30 | Čelik | FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga | 0-2 |
| 2016-10-30 | FK Sarajevo | Čelik | Premijer Liga | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Čelik vs FK Sarajevo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.3%, draw 29.2%, away 44.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.43 | 3.08 | 2.04 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.45 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.04 |
| Marathonbet | 3.34 | 3.08 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.54 | 3.29 | 1.98 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .