Simba
vs
Orlando Pirates
Garuda Lions Prediction: Simba
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 1.00.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Simba vs Orlando Pirates overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Simba vs Orlando Pirates
| Probability | Simba | Draw | Orlando Pirates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.3% | 30.4% | 27.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.3% | 30.4% | 27.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Simba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 1.00.
Simba vs Orlando Pirates match preview
Simba and Orlando Pirates are set to clash in the CAF Champions League, with kickoff scheduled for November 28, 2026. According to our model, Simba holds a 42% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 30% and Orlando Pirates at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Simba, with a 12% probability. Expected goals are 1.31 for Simba and 1.00 for Orlando Pirates, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
Both teams are in excellent recent form, with Simba and Orlando Pirates each winning their last six matches. The model suggests a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 48% probability that both teams will find the net during the match. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Simba and Orlando Pirates expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Simba and Orlando Pirates attack and defence ratings
Simba
Orlando Pirates
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Regular season - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Simba vs Orlando Pirates markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 42.3% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Orlando Pirates | 27.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.6% |
| No | 52.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 0-0 | 11.2% |
Simba vs Orlando Pirates stats
Simba and Orlando Pirates recent form
| Simba |
WWWWWW |
| Orlando Pirates |
WWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.