ES Tunis
vs
Wiliete
Garuda Lions Prediction: ES Tunis
1 – 0 Predicted score · 20% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.55.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
ES Tunis vs Wiliete overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ES Tunis vs Wiliete
| Probability | ES Tunis | Draw | Wiliete |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 32.2% | 15.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 52.7% | 32.2% | 15.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why ES Tunis
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.55.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
ES Tunis vs Wiliete match preview
ES Tunis enters the match against Wiliete with a probability of 53% to win, while a draw stands at 32% and a Wiliete victory at 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 20% chance of occurring. ES Tunis has an expected goals figure of 1.25, compared to Wiliete's 0.55, indicating a significant offensive advantage.
In terms of recent form, ES Tunis has recorded a sequence of W-D-W-L-W-W, showcasing a strong performance, while Wiliete's form is mixed with D-D-W-W-L-L. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 27%, and both teams scoring is projected at 31%. Overall, the confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ES Tunis and Wiliete expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.80
ES Tunis and Wiliete attack and defence ratings
ES Tunis
Wiliete
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Regular season - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
ES Tunis vs Wiliete markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Tunis | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ES Tunis | 52.7% |
| Draw | 32.2% | |
| Wiliete | 15.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.1% |
| No | 68.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | ES Tunis win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27.6% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 19.6% |
| 0-0 | 17.7% | |
| 2-0 | 13.0% |