Hillerød
vs
Hobro
3 – 1 Full time
Hillerød vs Hobro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hillerød vs Hobro
| Probability | Hillerød | Draw | Hobro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.0% | 21.3% | 24.7% |
| Market | 35.9% | 27.0% | 37.1% |
| Final | 40.5% | 25.5% | 34.0% |
| Edge | +18.1% | -5.7% | -12.4% |
Why Hillerød
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.55.
- The market prices Hillerød below the model: +18.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hillerød and Hobro expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.87
Hillerød and Hobro attack and defence ratings
Hillerød
Hobro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Hillerød vs Hobro: result vs prediction
Hillerød 3 – 1 Hobro
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hillerød vs Hobro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hillerød | 40.5% | 2.47 | +18.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.7% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.9% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hillerød | 40.5% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Hobro | 34.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.7% |
| No | 28.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hillerød win | 34.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 45.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.7% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Hillerød vs Hobro stats
Hillerød and Hobro recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hillerød and Hobro going into this match
Hillerød record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hobro record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hillerød vs Hobro head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-25 | Hobro | Hillerød | Denmark 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Hillerød | Hobro | Denmark 1. Division | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hillerød vs Hobro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.9%, draw 27.0%, away 37.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.54 |
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 3.44 | 2.47 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.45 | 2.57 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.61 | 3.44 | 2.47 |
| Pinnacle | 2.69 | 3.45 | 2.50 |
| SBO | 2.46 | 3.13 | 2.36 |
| Unibet | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .