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Denmark Superliga · Full time ·Matchday 6

Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland

0 – 2 Full time

11′F. Etim
46′P. BravoS. Johannesen
56′D. Castillo
59′M. CamaraL. Callo
59′S. TchamcheJ. Serra
59′M. AndersonJ. Bogere
67′M. ErlicV. Bak
67′Cho Gue-SungS. Iheanacho
68′Colin Rösler
72′C. RoslerR. Carstensen
81′Kjell Wätjen
81′T. BechS. Jorgensen
81′F. EtimE. Chilufya
85′D. BeniA. Ndiaye
87′Magnus Knudsen
89′Philip Billing
90′Rasmus Kristensen

Vejlby Stadion, AarhusReferee: Jacob A. Sundberg, Denmark

Aarhus 27%
Draw 25%
FC Midtjylland 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 7
59 Possession % 41
8 Corners 5
19 Fouls 20
1 Offsides 2
5 Saves 3
384 Accurate passes 239

Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAarhusDrawFC Midtjylland
Model21.4%23.5%55.1%
Market29.3%26.0%44.7%
Final27.3%25.4%47.3%
Edge-7.9%-2.5%+10.4%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Midtjylland

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.19.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Midtjylland below the model: +10.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Aarhus ↓ / FC Midtjylland → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 5% 1 11% 10% 7% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Aarhus and FC Midtjylland expected goals

Aarhus 1.19
FC Midtjylland 2.00

Total expected goals: 3.19

Aarhus and FC Midtjylland attack and defence ratings

Aarhus

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 1.26 +26%

FC Midtjylland

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland: result vs prediction

Aarhus 0 – 2 FC Midtjylland

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Denmark Superliga

Before and after this match

Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Midtjylland 47.3% 2.12 +10.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.7% 1.62 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.1% 1.64 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.6% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.9% 2.23 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Aarhus27.3%
Draw25.4%
FC Midtjylland47.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%
Both teams to scoreYes61.1%
No38.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.7%
12 (either side)74.6%
X2 (draw or away)72.7%
Handicap -1FC Midtjylland win33.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss44.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.8%
1-29.8%
0-28.2%

Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland stats

Aarhus and FC Midtjylland recent form

newest first
Aarhus LLDLLL
FC Midtjylland DWWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Aarhus and FC Midtjylland going into this match

league record before kick-off

Aarhus record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

FC Midtjylland record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Aarhus wins 6Draws 4FC Midtjylland wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26AarhusFC MidtjyllandDenmark Superliga0-0
2026-04-20FC MidtjyllandAarhusDenmark Superliga2-1
2026-03-08FC MidtjyllandAarhusDBU Pokalen1-1
2026-02-12AarhusFC MidtjyllandDBU Pokalen0-1
2025-11-03FC MidtjyllandAarhusDenmark Superliga1-1
2025-08-03AarhusFC MidtjyllandDenmark Superliga0-0
2025-05-04FC MidtjyllandAarhusSuperliga3-1
2025-04-13AarhusFC MidtjyllandSuperliga1-1
2024-10-27FC MidtjyllandAarhusSuperliga2-0
2024-07-19AarhusFC MidtjyllandSuperliga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Aarhus vs FC Midtjylland odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.3%, draw 26.0%, away 44.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.10 3.65 2.10
1xBet 3.12 3.60 2.13
Bet365 3.25 3.60 2.10
BetVictor 3.00 3.50 2.10
Betano 3.25 3.65 2.15
Betfair 3.20 3.60 2.10
Dafabet 3.30 3.75 2.10
Marathonbet 3.18 3.58 2.09
Pinnacle 3.28 3.75 2.16
SBO 2.96 3.36 2.11
Superbet 3.20 3.65 2.15
Unibet 3.20 3.65 2.06
William Hill 3.10 3.40 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.20 ▲ +0.51
X 3.60 ▼ -0.04
2 2.10 ▼ -0.23

9 snapshots recorded, from .