Al Ittihad
vs
El Geish
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Ittihad
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.71.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Al Ittihad vs El Geish overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ittihad vs El Geish
| Probability | Al Ittihad | Draw | El Geish |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.2% | 25.1% | 13.7% |
| Market | 34.4% | 34.9% | 30.7% |
| Final | 41.1% | 32.5% | 26.5% |
| Edge | +6.7% | -2.4% | -4.3% |
Why Al Ittihad
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al Ittihad below our published probability: +6.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +19.1% per unit staked (our 41.1% × 2.90 − 1).
Al Ittihad vs El Geish match preview
Al Ittihad faces El Geish in the Egypt Premier League with a probability of 40% for a home victory, while the chances for a draw and an away win stand at 32% and 28%, respectively. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring with a 14% probability. Al Ittihad has an expected goals figure of 1.75, compared to El Geish's 0.71, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Al Ittihad has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and a loss in their last six matches. Conversely, El Geish has struggled, with four losses and only one win in their last six fixtures. Historically, Al Ittihad has dominated their encounters, winning both of their last two meetings without any draws or losses to El Geish.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Ittihad and El Geish expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Al Ittihad and El Geish attack and defence ratings
Al Ittihad
El Geish
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Ittihad vs El Geish markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ittihad | 41.1% | 2.43 | +6.7% | 2.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.8% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ittihad | 41.1% |
| Draw | 32.5% | |
| El Geish | 26.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.0% |
| No | 57.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ittihad win | 35.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 38.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.9% |
| 2-0 | 13.1% | |
| 1-1 | 11.7% |
Al Ittihad vs El Geish stats
Al Ittihad and El Geish recent form
| Al Ittihad |
LWWWWL |
| El Geish |
LLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Ittihad and El Geish season so far
Al Ittihad record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
El Geish record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Ittihad vs El Geish head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | Al Ittihad | El Geish | Egypt Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-06 | El Geish | Al Ittihad | Egypt Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Ittihad vs El Geish odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.4%, draw 34.9%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.61 | 2.53 | 2.95 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 2.62 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 2.63 | 2.88 |
| Marathonbet | 2.61 | 2.53 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 2.62 | 3.14 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 2.62 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .